Development and Validation of a Predictive Model for Growth of Salmonella Infantis in Ground Turkey

Most retail samples (25 g) of ground turkey contain no or low levels of Salmonella. However, temperature abuse after retail can lead to spread and growth of Salmonella in the package. In addition, it can lead to levels that pose a significant risk of salmonellosis. This is especially true when the serotype is a top human clinical isolate, like Infantis. Therefore, the current study was undertaken to develop and validate a predictive model for the growth of Salmonella Infantis in ground turkey subjected to temperature abuse. The purpose was to fill a gap for serotype-specific data and models in risk assessments for this pathogen and food combination. Storage trials with a low initial inoculum (0.85 log₁₀) of Salmonella Infantis in commercial ground turkey samples (0.2 g) with native microflora were conducted at 16–40 °C for 0–28 h. Salmonella was enumerated in ground turkey samples using an automated, whole sample enrichment, miniature, most probable number (MPN) assay. The MPN data were fitted to a three-phase linear primary model. Secondary models for primary model parameters were developed and used in the primary model to create a tertiary model that predicted the growth of Salmonella Infantis in ground turkey as a function of time and temperature. Data and tertiary model predictions were evaluated using the test data, model performance, and model validation criteria of the Acceptable Prediction Zones method in the Validation Software Tool. The tertiary model predictions were considered to have acceptable bias and accuracy when the proportion of residuals (observed − predicted) in the partly and fully acceptable prediction zones (pAPZ) was ≥0.7. The overall pAPZ of the tertiary model was 0.866 for dependent data (n = 406) and 0.853 for independent data for interpolation (n = 177). However, there were local prediction problems that limited the validated prediction range to a region from 0 to 8 h at 16–40 °C. Nonetheless, this validation range was sufficient to simulate temperature abuse of ground turkey during meal preparation in the consumers’ home. Thus, the model fills an important data and modeling gap in risk assessments for Salmonella and ground turkey. Additional data are needed to repair and fully validate the model.