Chun Fu, Xuanye Wen, Tingting Huang, Yanli Wang, Xiu Liu, Na Jiang, Rulin Wang, Jinpeng Zhao
{"title":"GARP 与 MaxEnt 在模拟中国 Ceracris nigricornis Walker (Acrididae, Orthoptera) 当前和未来地理分布中的比较。","authors":"Chun Fu, Xuanye Wen, Tingting Huang, Yanli Wang, Xiu Liu, Na Jiang, Rulin Wang, Jinpeng Zhao","doi":"10.1002/ece3.70439","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><i>Ceracris nigricornis</i> Walker is an insect of the Acrididae, which can harm bamboo, rice, corn, sorghum and other crops, and can cause serious economic losses. In this study, based on 234 occurrence sites of <i>C. nigricornis</i> obtained from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility and literature, and data of three future climate scenarios presented by CMIP6, two niche models (GARP, MaxEnt) were used to predict the suitable area of <i>C. nigricornis</i> in China. The result shows that the main environmental factors affecting the distribution of <i>C. nigricornis</i> are min temperature of coldest month (bio6), mean temperature of coldest quarter (bio11), precipitation of driest month (bio14) and precipitation of wettest quarter (bio16). From the result of MaxEnt model, it can be seen that the suitable area of <i>C. nigricornis</i> in China is 128.91 × 10<sup>4</sup> km<sup>2</sup> under current scenario. It will decrease by 3.19% in the 2050s and then increase by 12.04% in the 2090s under the SSP1-2.6 scenario, increase by 5.79% in the 2050s and then decrease by 7.53% in the 2090s under the SSP2-4.5 scenario, and increase by 33.03% in 2050s and then decrease by 23.31% in the 2090s under SSP5-8.5 scenario. From the result of GARP model, it can be seen that the suitable area of <i>C. nigricornis</i> in China is 166.09 × 10<sup>4</sup> km<sup>2</sup> under current scenario. It will increase by 8.41% in 2050s and then continue to increase by 6.11% in 2090s under SSP1-2.6 scenario, increase by 23.84% in the 2050s and then decrease by 0.88% in the 2090s under the SSP2-4.5 scenario, and increase by 34.37% in 2050s and then decrease by 1.75% in 2090s under SSP5-8.5 scenario. The boundaries of suitable areas will expand to the north and southwest of China under future climate change scenarios, specially in Sichuan, Chongqing and Yunnan. Local forestry authorities should strengthen the monitoring of bamboo forests to prevent the damage caused by the introduction of <i>C. nigricornis</i>.</p>","PeriodicalId":11467,"journal":{"name":"Ecology and Evolution","volume":"14 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.3000,"publicationDate":"2024-10-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11496565/pdf/","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Comparison of GARP and MaxEnt in Modeling Current and Future Geographic Distribution of Ceracris nigricornis Walker (Acrididae, Orthoptera) in China\",\"authors\":\"Chun Fu, Xuanye Wen, Tingting Huang, Yanli Wang, Xiu Liu, Na Jiang, Rulin Wang, Jinpeng Zhao\",\"doi\":\"10.1002/ece3.70439\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><i>Ceracris nigricornis</i> Walker is an insect of the Acrididae, which can harm bamboo, rice, corn, sorghum and other crops, and can cause serious economic losses. In this study, based on 234 occurrence sites of <i>C. nigricornis</i> obtained from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility and literature, and data of three future climate scenarios presented by CMIP6, two niche models (GARP, MaxEnt) were used to predict the suitable area of <i>C. nigricornis</i> in China. The result shows that the main environmental factors affecting the distribution of <i>C. nigricornis</i> are min temperature of coldest month (bio6), mean temperature of coldest quarter (bio11), precipitation of driest month (bio14) and precipitation of wettest quarter (bio16). From the result of MaxEnt model, it can be seen that the suitable area of <i>C. nigricornis</i> in China is 128.91 × 10<sup>4</sup> km<sup>2</sup> under current scenario. It will decrease by 3.19% in the 2050s and then increase by 12.04% in the 2090s under the SSP1-2.6 scenario, increase by 5.79% in the 2050s and then decrease by 7.53% in the 2090s under the SSP2-4.5 scenario, and increase by 33.03% in 2050s and then decrease by 23.31% in the 2090s under SSP5-8.5 scenario. From the result of GARP model, it can be seen that the suitable area of <i>C. nigricornis</i> in China is 166.09 × 10<sup>4</sup> km<sup>2</sup> under current scenario. It will increase by 8.41% in 2050s and then continue to increase by 6.11% in 2090s under SSP1-2.6 scenario, increase by 23.84% in the 2050s and then decrease by 0.88% in the 2090s under the SSP2-4.5 scenario, and increase by 34.37% in 2050s and then decrease by 1.75% in 2090s under SSP5-8.5 scenario. The boundaries of suitable areas will expand to the north and southwest of China under future climate change scenarios, specially in Sichuan, Chongqing and Yunnan. Local forestry authorities should strengthen the monitoring of bamboo forests to prevent the damage caused by the introduction of <i>C. nigricornis</i>.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":11467,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Ecology and Evolution\",\"volume\":\"14 10\",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":2.3000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-10-22\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11496565/pdf/\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Ecology and Evolution\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"99\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/ece3.70439\",\"RegionNum\":2,\"RegionCategory\":\"生物学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"ECOLOGY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Ecology and Evolution","FirstCategoryId":"99","ListUrlMain":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/ece3.70439","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"生物学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"ECOLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}
Comparison of GARP and MaxEnt in Modeling Current and Future Geographic Distribution of Ceracris nigricornis Walker (Acrididae, Orthoptera) in China
Ceracris nigricornis Walker is an insect of the Acrididae, which can harm bamboo, rice, corn, sorghum and other crops, and can cause serious economic losses. In this study, based on 234 occurrence sites of C. nigricornis obtained from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility and literature, and data of three future climate scenarios presented by CMIP6, two niche models (GARP, MaxEnt) were used to predict the suitable area of C. nigricornis in China. The result shows that the main environmental factors affecting the distribution of C. nigricornis are min temperature of coldest month (bio6), mean temperature of coldest quarter (bio11), precipitation of driest month (bio14) and precipitation of wettest quarter (bio16). From the result of MaxEnt model, it can be seen that the suitable area of C. nigricornis in China is 128.91 × 104 km2 under current scenario. It will decrease by 3.19% in the 2050s and then increase by 12.04% in the 2090s under the SSP1-2.6 scenario, increase by 5.79% in the 2050s and then decrease by 7.53% in the 2090s under the SSP2-4.5 scenario, and increase by 33.03% in 2050s and then decrease by 23.31% in the 2090s under SSP5-8.5 scenario. From the result of GARP model, it can be seen that the suitable area of C. nigricornis in China is 166.09 × 104 km2 under current scenario. It will increase by 8.41% in 2050s and then continue to increase by 6.11% in 2090s under SSP1-2.6 scenario, increase by 23.84% in the 2050s and then decrease by 0.88% in the 2090s under the SSP2-4.5 scenario, and increase by 34.37% in 2050s and then decrease by 1.75% in 2090s under SSP5-8.5 scenario. The boundaries of suitable areas will expand to the north and southwest of China under future climate change scenarios, specially in Sichuan, Chongqing and Yunnan. Local forestry authorities should strengthen the monitoring of bamboo forests to prevent the damage caused by the introduction of C. nigricornis.
期刊介绍：
Ecology and Evolution is the peer reviewed journal for rapid dissemination of research in all areas of ecology, evolution and conservation science. The journal gives priority to quality research reports, theoretical or empirical, that develop our understanding of organisms and their diversity, interactions between them, and the natural environment.
Ecology and Evolution gives prompt and equal consideration to papers reporting theoretical, experimental, applied and descriptive work in terrestrial and aquatic environments. The journal will consider submissions across taxa in areas including but not limited to micro and macro ecological and evolutionary processes, characteristics of and interactions between individuals, populations, communities and the environment, physiological responses to environmental change, population genetics and phylogenetics, relatedness and kin selection, life histories, systematics and taxonomy, conservation genetics, extinction, speciation, adaption, behaviour, biodiversity, species abundance, macroecology, population and ecosystem dynamics, and conservation policy.
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