Predictive value of the BDH2-MN2 nomogram model for prognosis at 3 months after receiving intravenous thrombolysis in patients with acute ischemic stroke.

Introduction: The present study focused on developing a nomogram model to predict the 3-month survival of patients with acute ischemic stroke (AIS) receiving intravenous thrombolysis with tissue plasminogen activator (tPA).

Material and methods: A total of 709 patients were enrolled in the present study, including 496 patients in the training set and 213 patients in the validation set. All data were statistically analyzed using R software. We applied LASSO regression analysis to construct nomograms by screening statistically significant predictors from all variables.The model discrimination was evaluated based on the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC).

Results: LASSO regression analysis was conducted for all variables, which revealed BNP, DNT, HCY, HDL, MHR, NHR and post-thrombolysis NIHSS as independent predictors of adverse outcomes at 3 months after intravenous thrombolysis. Accordingly, these seven factors were incorporated in the nominated BDH2-MN2 nomogram. The resulting AUC-ROC values determined for the training and validation sets were 0.937 (95% CI: 0.822-0.954) and 0.898 (95% CI: 0.748-0.921), respectively.

Conclusions: A robust BDH2-MN2 (BNP, DNT, HCY, HDL, MHR, NHR and post-thrombolysis NIHSS) nomogram model was successfully developed and validated. The developed nomogram enables prediction of adverse outcomes of individual AIS patients receiving intravenous thrombolysis with alteplase for 3 months.