Zeinab Hesami, Meysam Olfatifar, Amir Sadeghi, Mohammad Reza Zali, Samira Mohammadi-Yeganeh, Mohammad Amin Habibi, Mohammad Reza Ghadir, Hamidreza Houri
{"title":"到 2040 年全球胰腺癌患病率趋势：疾病-死亡模型研究。","authors":"Zeinab Hesami, Meysam Olfatifar, Amir Sadeghi, Mohammad Reza Zali, Samira Mohammadi-Yeganeh, Mohammad Amin Habibi, Mohammad Reza Ghadir, Hamidreza Houri","doi":"10.1002/cam4.70318","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div>\n \n \n <section>\n \n <h3> Background</h3>\n \n <p>Despite remarkable progress in contemporary medical technology and enhanced survival outcomes for various cancer types, pancreatic cancer (PC) continues to stand out as a particularly deadly gastrointestinal malignancy. Given a persistent rise in both incidence and the corresponding mortality rates of PC globally, evaluations of PC burden by sex are of great importance. Here, we used the illness-death multi-state model (IDM) to forecast the prevalence of PC through the year 2040.</p>\n </section>\n \n <section>\n \n <h3> Methods</h3>\n \n <p>IDM was established based on obtainable data to predict the future prevalence of PC on global, regional, and national scales from 2019 to 2040. Analyses were also performed regarding sex and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) are presented for all estimates.</p>\n </section>\n \n <section>\n \n <h3> Results</h3>\n \n <p>The projected prevalence rate for 2040 is anticipated to be 6.093 ([95% CI 5.47–6.786] per 100,000) worldwide, indicating a significant increase of 31.45% since 1990, and a 12.29% increase since 2019. The estimated average annual increase since 2020 was 0.5%. Considering sex differences, females are expected to have a steeper slope in prevalence rate than males. Intriguingly, when considering the percentage changes between the periods of 2019–2040 and 1990–2019 for both sexes, females exhibited 29% and 11% increase relative to males (2.6-fold greater increase).</p>\n </section>\n \n <section>\n \n <h3> Conclusions</h3>\n \n <p>By 2040, it is predicted that the prevalence of PC will increase globally, with women being at higher risk of developing the disease. Considering the percentage changes, regions with lower socioeconomic status are anticipated to face a greater risk of experiencing PC compared to other geographical areas.</p>\n </section>\n </div>","PeriodicalId":139,"journal":{"name":"Cancer Medicine","volume":"13 20","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.9000,"publicationDate":"2024-10-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11497012/pdf/","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Global Trend in Pancreatic Cancer Prevalence Rates Through 2040: An Illness-Death Modeling Study\",\"authors\":\"Zeinab Hesami, Meysam Olfatifar, Amir Sadeghi, Mohammad Reza Zali, Samira Mohammadi-Yeganeh, Mohammad Amin Habibi, Mohammad Reza Ghadir, Hamidreza Houri\",\"doi\":\"10.1002/cam4.70318\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div>\\n \\n \\n <section>\\n \\n <h3> Background</h3>\\n \\n <p>Despite remarkable progress in contemporary medical technology and enhanced survival outcomes for various cancer types, pancreatic cancer (PC) continues to stand out as a particularly deadly gastrointestinal malignancy. Given a persistent rise in both incidence and the corresponding mortality rates of PC globally, evaluations of PC burden by sex are of great importance. Here, we used the illness-death multi-state model (IDM) to forecast the prevalence of PC through the year 2040.</p>\\n </section>\\n \\n <section>\\n \\n <h3> Methods</h3>\\n \\n <p>IDM was established based on obtainable data to predict the future prevalence of PC on global, regional, and national scales from 2019 to 2040. Analyses were also performed regarding sex and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) are presented for all estimates.</p>\\n </section>\\n \\n <section>\\n \\n <h3> Results</h3>\\n \\n <p>The projected prevalence rate for 2040 is anticipated to be 6.093 ([95% CI 5.47–6.786] per 100,000) worldwide, indicating a significant increase of 31.45% since 1990, and a 12.29% increase since 2019. The estimated average annual increase since 2020 was 0.5%. Considering sex differences, females are expected to have a steeper slope in prevalence rate than males. Intriguingly, when considering the percentage changes between the periods of 2019–2040 and 1990–2019 for both sexes, females exhibited 29% and 11% increase relative to males (2.6-fold greater increase).</p>\\n </section>\\n \\n <section>\\n \\n <h3> Conclusions</h3>\\n \\n <p>By 2040, it is predicted that the prevalence of PC will increase globally, with women being at higher risk of developing the disease. Considering the percentage changes, regions with lower socioeconomic status are anticipated to face a greater risk of experiencing PC compared to other geographical areas.</p>\\n </section>\\n </div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":139,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Cancer Medicine\",\"volume\":\"13 20\",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":2.9000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-10-23\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11497012/pdf/\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Cancer Medicine\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"3\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/cam4.70318\",\"RegionNum\":2,\"RegionCategory\":\"医学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"ONCOLOGY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Cancer Medicine","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/cam4.70318","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"ONCOLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
摘要
背景：尽管当代医疗技术取得了巨大进步，各种癌症的生存率也有所提高，但胰腺癌（PC）仍然是一种特别致命的消化道恶性肿瘤。鉴于全球 PC 发病率和相应死亡率的持续上升，按性别对 PC 负担进行评估具有重要意义。在此，我们利用疾病-死亡多态模型（IDM）预测了到 2040 年的 PC 发病率：方法：根据可获得的数据建立 IDM，预测 2019 年至 2040 年全球、地区和国家范围内 PC 的未来患病率。同时还对性别进行了分析，并给出了所有估计值的 95% 置信区间 (CI)：结果：预计 2040 年全球患病率为每 10 万人 6.093 例（[95% CI 5.47-6.786] ），表明自 1990 年以来显著增加了 31.45%，自 2019 年以来增加了 12.29%。估计自 2020 年以来的年均增长率为 0.5%。考虑到性别差异，预计女性患病率的斜率将高于男性。耐人寻味的是，如果考虑到 2019-2040 年期间与 1990-2019 年期间男女的百分比变化，女性比男性分别增加了 29% 和 11%（增幅为男性的 2.6 倍）：结论：据预测，到 2040 年，全球 PC 患病率将上升，女性患病风险更高。考虑到百分比变化，与其他地区相比，社会经济地位较低的地区预计将面临更大的PC患病风险。
Global Trend in Pancreatic Cancer Prevalence Rates Through 2040: An Illness-Death Modeling Study
Background
Despite remarkable progress in contemporary medical technology and enhanced survival outcomes for various cancer types, pancreatic cancer (PC) continues to stand out as a particularly deadly gastrointestinal malignancy. Given a persistent rise in both incidence and the corresponding mortality rates of PC globally, evaluations of PC burden by sex are of great importance. Here, we used the illness-death multi-state model (IDM) to forecast the prevalence of PC through the year 2040.
Methods
IDM was established based on obtainable data to predict the future prevalence of PC on global, regional, and national scales from 2019 to 2040. Analyses were also performed regarding sex and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) are presented for all estimates.
Results
The projected prevalence rate for 2040 is anticipated to be 6.093 ([95% CI 5.47–6.786] per 100,000) worldwide, indicating a significant increase of 31.45% since 1990, and a 12.29% increase since 2019. The estimated average annual increase since 2020 was 0.5%. Considering sex differences, females are expected to have a steeper slope in prevalence rate than males. Intriguingly, when considering the percentage changes between the periods of 2019–2040 and 1990–2019 for both sexes, females exhibited 29% and 11% increase relative to males (2.6-fold greater increase).
Conclusions
By 2040, it is predicted that the prevalence of PC will increase globally, with women being at higher risk of developing the disease. Considering the percentage changes, regions with lower socioeconomic status are anticipated to face a greater risk of experiencing PC compared to other geographical areas.
期刊介绍：
Cancer Medicine is a peer-reviewed, open access, interdisciplinary journal providing rapid publication of research from global biomedical researchers across the cancer sciences. The journal will consider submissions from all oncologic specialties, including, but not limited to, the following areas:
Clinical Cancer Research
Translational research ∙ clinical trials ∙ chemotherapy ∙ radiation therapy ∙ surgical therapy ∙ clinical observations ∙ clinical guidelines ∙ genetic consultation ∙ ethical considerations
Cancer Biology:
Molecular biology ∙ cellular biology ∙ molecular genetics ∙ genomics ∙ immunology ∙ epigenetics ∙ metabolic studies ∙ proteomics ∙ cytopathology ∙ carcinogenesis ∙ drug discovery and delivery.
Cancer Prevention:
Behavioral science ∙ psychosocial studies ∙ screening ∙ nutrition ∙ epidemiology and prevention ∙ community outreach.
Bioinformatics:
Gene expressions profiles ∙ gene regulation networks ∙ genome bioinformatics ∙ pathwayanalysis ∙ prognostic biomarkers.
Cancer Medicine publishes original research articles, systematic reviews, meta-analyses, and research methods papers, along with invited editorials and commentaries. Original research papers must report well-conducted research with conclusions supported by the data presented in the paper.
求助内容：
应助结果提醒方式：
京公网安备 11010802042870号
