A temperature tipping point in hypoxic zone size

Temperature increases will have ubiquitous effects on aquatic food webs, from microbes to consumers, and affect the quality and quantity of carbon flows within and between water layers. A decline in the biological pump moving carbon from surface to lower layers is anticipated. We reviewed 37 years of data on hypoxic zone size and water quality in the northern Gulf of Mexico to determine if air and bottom water temperature increases (0.5°C decade−1) are significantly related to variations in its areal size. There was no significant decline in important river water quality in the 24 years since the national Hypoxia Action Plan was developed to reduce its size. Changes in the ratio of km2 hypoxia per 1000 mt nitrate loading from the Mississippi River from 2000 to 2023 reveals a tipping point in the hypoxic zone size that is driven by ocean warming. Biological factors varying with temperature such as ectotherm growth rates, zooplankton grazing, cell sinking rates, and diatom sequestration of Si or N are apparently more important influences on recent hypoxic zone size than variations in physical factors. This tipping point may be common to similarly warmed and eutrophic coastal waters where warming will likely result in diminished oxygen deficiency (< 2 mgO2 L−1). Hypoxia and food web models assuming a stationary equipoise of nutrient loadings, ratios and food webs will be deficient as coastal waters warm further, coastal storm and hurricane frequency increase and land uses in the watershed are altered with climate change.