热带季内振荡是 2022 年巴基斯坦破纪录降雨事件的主要驱动因素和可预测性来源

IF 8.5 1区地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2024-10-23 DOI:10.1038/s41612-024-00809-9

Jinhui Xie, Pang-Chi Hsu, June-Yi Lee, Lu Wang, Andrew G. Turner

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引用次数: 0

摘要

2022 年 8 月，巴基斯坦经历了史无前例的季风雨，导致毁灭性的洪水和山体滑坡，数百万人受灾。以往的研究主要关注季节和天气异常的影响，而本研究则阐明了热带和外热带季内振荡对这次极端降雨事件的发生和亚季预测的主要影响。我们的尺度分解水汽收支分析表明，巴基斯坦的强降雨是由增强的垂直水汽输送异常触发和维持的，主要是由季内环流异常和当时的背景水汽场之间的相互作用驱动的，当时热带和中纬度系统同时出现在巴基斯坦上空。对分季节到季节预测模式的评估进一步突出了热带季内模式在造成巴基斯坦这次极端降雨事件中的关键作用。准确预测向北传播的季内对流的模式，其预测准备时间为 8-22 天，在预测巴基斯坦上空的极端事件方面表现出良好的技能。

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Tropical intraseasonal oscillations as key driver and source of predictability for the 2022 Pakistan record-breaking rainfall event

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Tropical intraseasonal oscillations as key driver and source of predictability for the 2022 Pakistan record-breaking rainfall event

In August 2022, Pakistan experienced unprecedented monsoon rains, leading to devastating floods and landslides affecting millions. While previous research has mainly focused on the contributions of seasonal and synoptic anomalies, this study elucidates the dominant influences of tropical and extratropical intraseasonal oscillations on both the occurrence and subseasonal prediction of this extreme rainfall event. Our scale-decomposed moisture budget analysis revealed that intense rainfall in Pakistan was triggered and sustained by enhanced vertical moisture transport anomalies, primarily driven by interactions between intraseasonal circulation anomalies and the prevailing background moisture field when tropical and mid-latitude systems coincided over Pakistan. Evaluation of subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction models further highlighted the critical role of tropical intraseasonal modes in causing this extreme rainfall event in Pakistan. Models that accurately predicted northward-propagating intraseasonal convection with a forecast lead time of 8–22 days demonstrated good skill in predicting the extreme event over Pakistan.

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来源期刊

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Earth and Planetary Sciences-Atmospheric Science

CiteScore

8.80

自引率

3.30%

发文量

审稿时长

21 weeks

期刊介绍： npj Climate and Atmospheric Science is an open-access journal encompassing the relevant physical, chemical, and biological aspects of atmospheric and climate science. The journal places particular emphasis on regional studies that unveil new insights into specific localities, including examinations of local atmospheric composition, such as aerosols. The range of topics covered by the journal includes climate dynamics, climate variability, weather and climate prediction, climate change, ocean dynamics, weather extremes, air pollution, atmospheric chemistry (including aerosols), the hydrological cycle, and atmosphere–ocean and atmosphere–land interactions. The journal welcomes studies employing a diverse array of methods, including numerical and statistical modeling, the development and application of in situ observational techniques, remote sensing, and the development or evaluation of new reanalyses.