2022 年苏丹埃博拉病毒在乌干达爆发:病例负担和疫情持续时间建模。

Donal Bisanzio, Henry Kyobe Bosa, Barnabas Bakamutumaho, Carolyne Nasimiyu, Diana Atwine, Daniel Kyabayinze, Charles Olaro, Robert F Breiman, M Kariuki Njenga, Henry Mwebesa, Jane Ruth Aceng, Richard Reithinger
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引用次数: 0

摘要

2022 年 9 月,乌干达证实爆发了苏丹病毒(SUDV)疫情。在第一例病例报告之后,我们开发了一个基于个体的建模平台(IBM-SUDV),利用不同的情景来估计病例和死亡的负担,以及苏丹病毒爆发的持续时间。模拟预测结果与最终观察到的病例和死亡人数相符。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
2022 Sudan Ebolavirus Outbreak in Uganda: Modelling Case Burden and Outbreak Duration.

In September 2022, an outbreak of Sudan virus (SUDV) was confirmed in Uganda. Following the first case report, we developed an individual based modelling platform (IBM-SUDV) to estimate the burden of cases and deaths, as well as the duration of the unfolding SUDV outbreak, using different scenarios. Modelled projections were within the range of cases and deaths ultimately observed.

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