A longitudinal 5-year study for the prediction of HCC, death and liver decompensation by ARFI elastography.

Aim: Numerous studies have evaluated elastography for the staging of liver fibrosis. Fewer studies were performed investigating the prognostic relevance using transient elastography (TE), although with promising results. This study was designed to evaluate the prognostic relevance of ARFI elastography.

Material and method: Patients receiving ARFI elastography in our ultrasound department between 2010 and 2012 were initially screened for an ARFI examination with a clinical follow-up of at least 5 years. The following events were recorded: liver related death, liver unrelated death, HCC, liver decompensation/ variceal bleeding.

Results: A total of 335 patients were included in the final analysis with an ARFI examination of the liver and a follow-up of 60 months. Within the observation interval the number of events with corresponding AUROCs (shown with 95% confidence interval) were: overall death (n=49, 0.76 [0.69 - 0.83]), liver related death (n=25, 0.85 [0.77 - 0.93]), liver unrelated death (n=24, 0.66 [0.55 - 0.77]), HCC (n=15, 0.80 [0.72 - 0.87]), liver related complications/variceal bleeding (n=34, 0.87 [0.82 - 0.93]). In the group of patients with ARFI values suggestive of cirrhosis (equal to or above 1.80 m/s; n=110) higher values (<2.5 m/s vs. >= 2.5 m/s) where associated with a significant decline in liver related survival (p=0.007).

Conclusion: ARFI elastography seems to have a good diagnostic accuracy for the prediction of liver related death and decompensation. Further it seems to allow a risk stratification in patients with cirrhosis suspicious elastography values.