Association between trajectory of systolic blood pressure and outcomes in heart failure patients with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF).

Background: The optimal systolic blood pressure (SBP) in heart failure patients with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) remains controversial. We aim to assess the SBP trajectory and prognosis in HFpEF.

Methods and results: Patients from Treatment of Preserved Cardiac Function Heart Failure with an Aldosterone Antagonist Trial (TOPCAT) were classified into three SBP trajectory groups according to the follow-up blood pressure using a latent category trajectory model. The primary outcome was composite of cardiovascular death, cardiac arrest, and hospital readmission for heart failure. A total of 3388 patients (mean age 68.6 years, 48.5 % men) were included. Mean SBP maintained 128 mmHg in the stable SBP trajectory group, declined from 129 to 125 mmHg in the decreasing SBP trajectory group and rose from 132 to 143 mmHg in the increasing SBP trajectory group within 6 years. During a mean follow-up of 3.4 years, 654 individuals had a primary outcome. Incidence for both primary and secondary outcomes were higher in increasing SBP trajectory group and decreasing SBP trajectory group compared with stable SBP trajectory group. After adjustments, the decreasing SBP trajectory group was associated with increased risk of all outcomes (hazard ratio ≥1.32), the increasing SBP trajectory group was associated with all-cause hospitalization and stroke (hazard ratio ≥ 1.28).

Conclusion: The decreasing or increasing SBP trajectory is associated with a high risk of cardiovascular events in HFpEF, suggesting a stable SBP trajectory group (≈130 mmHg) have lower incidence of cardiovascular events and mortality. Trials are necessary to determine the optimal SBP in HFpEF.