评估加入关税同盟的决定:一种动态机器学习方法。

IF 1.5 Q2 ECONOMICS
Dominik Naeher, Philippe De Lombaerde, Takfarinas Saber
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引用次数: 0

摘要

以往有关区域经济一体化的文献建议使用机器学习算法来评估关税同盟的组成,具体来说,就是估算关税同盟在多大程度上与贸易流量数据中的 "自然市场 "相匹配,或者在多大程度上受政治因素等其他因素的驱动。本文扩展了以往研究中使用的静态方法,建立了一个动态框架,不仅可以评估特定时间点的关税同盟构成,还可以评估新成员国加入后关税同盟构成随时间发生的变化。然后,我们利用 1958 年至 2018 年 200 个国家的双边贸易流量数据,运用动态算法评估了全球关税同盟格局的演变。我们的一个重要发现是,不同的欧盟加入回合在与 "自然市场 "结构相一致的程度上存在很大差异,一些加入回合比其他加入回合更遵循商业逻辑。世界上其他关税同盟也有类似的结果,补充了静态分析的不足。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Evaluating accession decisions in customs unions: a dynamic machine learning approach.

Previous work in the literature on regional economic integration has proposed the use of machine learning algorithms to evaluate the composition of customs unions, specifically, to estimate the degree to which customs unions match "natural markets" arising from trade flow data or appear to be driven by other factors such as political considerations. This paper expands upon the static approaches used in previous studies to develop a dynamic framework that allows to evaluate not only the composition of customs unions at a given point in time, but also changes in the composition over time resulting from accessions of new member states. We then apply the dynamic algorithm to evaluate the evolution of the global landscape of customs unions using data on bilateral trade flows of 200 countries from 1958 to 2018. A key finding is that there is considerable variation across different accession rounds of the European Union as to the extent to which these are aligned with the structure of "natural markets," with some accession rounds following more strongly a commercial logic than others. Similar results are also found for other customs unions in the world, complementing the insights obtained from static analyses.

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来源期刊
CiteScore
3.50
自引率
0.00%
发文量
24
期刊介绍: The double-blind peer reviewed Journal International Economics and Economic Policy publishes empirical and theoretical contributions, especially papers which are relevant for economic policy. The main focus of the journal is on comparative economic policy, international political economy, including international organizations and policy cooperation, monetary and real/technological dynamics in open economies, globalization and regional integration, trade, migration, international investment, internet commerce and regulation.IEEP particularly offers contributions from the policy community and provides a forum for exchange for the academic and policy community. Officially cited as: Int Econ Econ Policy
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