Social network size and endorsement of political violence in the US.

Background: In recent years, the United States (US) has witnessed a rise in political violence. Prior research has found that an individual's social network is associated with their likelihood of engaging in various forms of violence, but research on social networks and political violence in the US context is limited. This study examined associations between social network size and endorsement of political violence in a recent nationally representative survey and explored how the relationship varied by use of social media as a major news source, perceptions of the government as an enemy, and membership in a marginalized or privileged racial or ethnic group.

Methods: This was a nationally representative cross-sectional survey study of adults aged 18 and older in the US, administered from May 13-June 2, 2022. The exposure was social network size, defined by the number of strong social connections. We examined three violence-related outcomes: support for non-political violence, support for political violence, and personal willingness to engage in political violence. We estimated prevalence ratios for associations using survey-weighted Poisson regression with robust standard errors, adjusting for hypothesized confounders and including interaction terms to examine effect measure modification.

Results: The sample included 8,620 respondents. Median age was 48.4 years (95% CI = 47.9-48.8), 51.5% were female (95% CI = 50.4-52.7%), and 62.7% self-identified as non-Hispanic White (95% CI = 61.4-65.9%). In adjusted models, those with zero strong connections were more likely than those with 1-4 strong social connections to consider political violence usually/always justified in general (PR = 2.43, 95% CI = 1.47-4.01). Those with 50 + strong connections were more likely than those with 1-4 strong social connections to consider political violence usually/always justified in at least one situation (PR = 1.19, 95% CI = 1.03-1.37) and were more likely to report being willing to personally use political violence (PR = 1.52, 95% CI = 1.13-2.04). Associations varied somewhat by social media use, perceptions of the government as an enemy, and racialized identity.

Conclusions: Individuals who reported very few and very many strong social connections were more likely than others to support political violence or be personally willing to engage in it in one form or another. Findings point toward potential intervention and prevention opportunities.