An observational analysis of the impact of deltamethrin + piperonyl butoxide insecticide-treated nets on malaria case incidence and entomological indicators in Ebonyi State, Nigeria, 2017-2021.

Background: Intense pyrethroid resistance threatens the effectiveness of the primary vector control intervention, insecticide-treated nets (ITNs), in Nigeria, the country with the largest malaria burden globally. In this study, the epidemiological and entomological impact of a new type of ITN (piperonyl-butoxide [PBO] ITNs) distributed in Ebonyi State were evaluated. The epidemiological impact was also compared to the impact of standard pyrethroid-only ITNs in Cross River State.

Methods: A controlled interrupted time series analysis was conducted on monthly malaria incidence data collected at the health facility level, using a multilevel mixed-effects negative binomial model. Data were analysed two years before and after the PBO ITN campaign in Ebonyi State (December 2017 to November 2021). A pre-post analysis, with no comparison group, was used to assess the impact of PBO ITNs on human biting rates and indoor resting density in Ebonyi during the high transmission season immediately before and after the PBO ITN campaign.

Results: In Ebonyi, PBO ITNs were associated with a 46.7% decrease (95%CI: -51.5, -40.8%; p < 0.001) in malaria case incidence in the 2 years after the PBO ITN distribution compared to a modelled scenario of no ITNs distributed, with a significant decrease from 269.6 predicted cases per 1000 population to 143.6. In Cross River, there was a significant 28.6% increase (95%CI: -10.4, 49.1%; p < 0.001) in malaria case incidence following the standard ITN distribution, with an increase from 71.2 predicted cases per 1000 population to 91.6. In Ebonyi, the human biting rate was 72% lower (IRR: 0.28; 95%CI 0.21, 0.39; p < 0.001) and indoor resting density was 73% lower (IRR: 0.27; 95%CI 0.21, 0.35; p < 0.001) after the PBO ITNs were distributed.

Conclusions: The epidemiological and entomological impact of the PBO ITNs underscore the impact of these ITNs in areas with confirmed pyrethroid resistance. These findings contribute to ongoing research on the impact of new types of ITNs in Nigeria, providing critical evidence for the Nigeria National Malaria Elimination Programme and other countries for future ITN procurement decisions as part of mass ITN campaign planning and malaria programming.