Maryam Rastegar, Vahid Fakoor, Eisa Nazar, Mahshid Nasehi, Saeed Sharafi, Mohammad Taghi Shakeri
{"title":"伊朗涂片阳性肺结核的有效繁殖数量:基于登记册的研究(2011-2021 年)》。","authors":"Maryam Rastegar, Vahid Fakoor, Eisa Nazar, Mahshid Nasehi, Saeed Sharafi, Mohammad Taghi Shakeri","doi":"10.34172/jrhs.2024.168","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Tuberculosis (TB) remains a major public health issue in Iran, especially smear-positive pulmonary tuberculosis (SPPTB), due to its high transmission rate. Examining the effective reproduction number(<i>R<sub>t</sub></i> ) of SPPTB and patient characteristics is crucial for crafting targeted TB control measures. This study aimed to assess the <i>R<sub>t</sub></i> of SPPTB in Iran from 2011 to 2021 and profile SPPTB patient demographics, initial smear bacilli density, diagnosis delays, and spatial distribution. <b>Study Design:</b> This is a historical cohort study.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>A time-dependent method was used to estimate <i>R<sub>t</sub></i> , and monthly data from the national TB registry were scrutinized from 2011 to 2021.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>A decline was observed in SPPTB incidence rates of 50909 SPPTB cases in Iran from 2011 to 2021. Approximately 29.1% of the cases were diagnosed within a month, while 44.5% experienced a one to three-month delay in diagnosis. The analysis revealed substantial heterogeneity in TB transmission dynamics across various provinces of Iran. Provinces such as Sistan and Baluchestan, Golestan, Guilan, Khuzestan, Tehran, and Khorasan Razavi exhibited the highest effective reproduction numbers. Additionally, there was a decreasing trend in the effective reproduction numbers across all provinces from 2011 to 2020.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>Effective reproduction numbers declined in most provinces from 2011 to 2020 but increased moderately after the COVID-19 pandemic, highlighting the need for targeted public health interventions. Although SPPTB incidence rates are declining nationally, elevated incidence rates and effective reproduction numbers in regions such as Sistan and Baluchestan, Golestan, Guilan, Khuzestan, Tehran, and Khorasan Razavi signify the need for persistent TB management efforts in Iran.</p>","PeriodicalId":17164,"journal":{"name":"Journal of research in health sciences","volume":"24 4","pages":"e00633"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4000,"publicationDate":"2024-09-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11492524/pdf/","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Effective Reproduction Number of Smear-Positive Pulmonary Tuberculosis in Iran: A Registry-Based Study (2011-2021).\",\"authors\":\"Maryam Rastegar, Vahid Fakoor, Eisa Nazar, Mahshid Nasehi, Saeed Sharafi, Mohammad Taghi Shakeri\",\"doi\":\"10.34172/jrhs.2024.168\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Tuberculosis (TB) remains a major public health issue in Iran, especially smear-positive pulmonary tuberculosis (SPPTB), due to its high transmission rate. Examining the effective reproduction number(<i>R<sub>t</sub></i> ) of SPPTB and patient characteristics is crucial for crafting targeted TB control measures. This study aimed to assess the <i>R<sub>t</sub></i> of SPPTB in Iran from 2011 to 2021 and profile SPPTB patient demographics, initial smear bacilli density, diagnosis delays, and spatial distribution. <b>Study Design:</b> This is a historical cohort study.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>A time-dependent method was used to estimate <i>R<sub>t</sub></i> , and monthly data from the national TB registry were scrutinized from 2011 to 2021.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>A decline was observed in SPPTB incidence rates of 50909 SPPTB cases in Iran from 2011 to 2021. Approximately 29.1% of the cases were diagnosed within a month, while 44.5% experienced a one to three-month delay in diagnosis. The analysis revealed substantial heterogeneity in TB transmission dynamics across various provinces of Iran. Provinces such as Sistan and Baluchestan, Golestan, Guilan, Khuzestan, Tehran, and Khorasan Razavi exhibited the highest effective reproduction numbers. Additionally, there was a decreasing trend in the effective reproduction numbers across all provinces from 2011 to 2020.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>Effective reproduction numbers declined in most provinces from 2011 to 2020 but increased moderately after the COVID-19 pandemic, highlighting the need for targeted public health interventions. Although SPPTB incidence rates are declining nationally, elevated incidence rates and effective reproduction numbers in regions such as Sistan and Baluchestan, Golestan, Guilan, Khuzestan, Tehran, and Khorasan Razavi signify the need for persistent TB management efforts in Iran.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":17164,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Journal of research in health sciences\",\"volume\":\"24 4\",\"pages\":\"e00633\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":1.4000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-09-30\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11492524/pdf/\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Journal of research in health sciences\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.34172/jrhs.2024.168\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"2024/7/30 0:00:00\",\"PubModel\":\"Epub\",\"JCR\":\"Q3\",\"JCRName\":\"PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of research in health sciences","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.34172/jrhs.2024.168","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"2024/7/30 0:00:00","PubModel":"Epub","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH","Score":null,"Total":0}
Effective Reproduction Number of Smear-Positive Pulmonary Tuberculosis in Iran: A Registry-Based Study (2011-2021).
Background: Tuberculosis (TB) remains a major public health issue in Iran, especially smear-positive pulmonary tuberculosis (SPPTB), due to its high transmission rate. Examining the effective reproduction number(Rt ) of SPPTB and patient characteristics is crucial for crafting targeted TB control measures. This study aimed to assess the Rt of SPPTB in Iran from 2011 to 2021 and profile SPPTB patient demographics, initial smear bacilli density, diagnosis delays, and spatial distribution. Study Design: This is a historical cohort study.
Methods: A time-dependent method was used to estimate Rt , and monthly data from the national TB registry were scrutinized from 2011 to 2021.
Results: A decline was observed in SPPTB incidence rates of 50909 SPPTB cases in Iran from 2011 to 2021. Approximately 29.1% of the cases were diagnosed within a month, while 44.5% experienced a one to three-month delay in diagnosis. The analysis revealed substantial heterogeneity in TB transmission dynamics across various provinces of Iran. Provinces such as Sistan and Baluchestan, Golestan, Guilan, Khuzestan, Tehran, and Khorasan Razavi exhibited the highest effective reproduction numbers. Additionally, there was a decreasing trend in the effective reproduction numbers across all provinces from 2011 to 2020.
Conclusion: Effective reproduction numbers declined in most provinces from 2011 to 2020 but increased moderately after the COVID-19 pandemic, highlighting the need for targeted public health interventions. Although SPPTB incidence rates are declining nationally, elevated incidence rates and effective reproduction numbers in regions such as Sistan and Baluchestan, Golestan, Guilan, Khuzestan, Tehran, and Khorasan Razavi signify the need for persistent TB management efforts in Iran.
期刊介绍:
The Journal of Research in Health Sciences (JRHS) is the official journal of the School of Public Health; Hamadan University of Medical Sciences, which is published quarterly. Since 2017, JRHS is published electronically. JRHS is a peer-reviewed, scientific publication which is produced quarterly and is a multidisciplinary journal in the field of public health, publishing contributions from Epidemiology, Biostatistics, Public Health, Occupational Health, Environmental Health, Health Education, and Preventive and Social Medicine. We do not publish clinical trials, nursing studies, animal studies, qualitative studies, nutritional studies, health insurance, and hospital management. In addition, we do not publish the results of laboratory and chemical studies in the field of ergonomics, occupational health, and environmental health