Prospective Association of the Mediterranean Diet with the Onset of Cardiometabolic Multimorbidity in a UK-Based Cohort: The EPIC-Norfolk Study.

Background: Cardiometabolic multimorbidity (CMM), defined as the co-occurrence of 2 or more cardiometabolic diseases, including myocardial infarction (MI), stroke, and type 2 diabetes (T2D), is an increasing public health challenge. Although poor diet is a known risk factor for a first cardiometabolic disease (FCMD), the relationship with subsequent occurrence of CMM is less studied.

Objectives: This study aims to investigate the prospective association between baseline adherence to the Mediterranean diet and the onset of CMM across various follow-up durations.

Methods: We used data from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer-Norfolk cohort study of 21,900 adults, aged 40-79 free of prevalent MI, stroke, and T2D at baseline (1993-1997). A median-based Mediterranean diet score and a pyramid-based MDS (pyr-MDS) were used to measure baseline adherence to the Mediterranean diet. Multistate modeling was employed to investigate associations with the FCMD and the subsequent CMM event.

Results: Over the entire follow-up period of 21.4 y (median), we observed 5028 FCMD and 734 CMM events. Multistate analysis indicated that the association between baseline Mediterranean diet and the risk of CMM may be stronger in shorter follow-up durations. Particularly, baseline pyr-MDS was significantly associated with the risk of subsequent CMM transitioning from FCMD when follow-up durations were limited to 10 and 15 y, with hazard ratio (95% confidence interval) being 0.67 (0.53, 0.84) and 0.80 (0.70, 0.92) per SD increase in pyr-MDS, respectively. Additionally, we observed that the risk of CMM transitioning from FCMD was modified by social class across shorter to longer follow-ups, where the impact of baseline Mediterranean diet was only significant in nonmanual workers.

Conclusions: Baseline adherence to the Mediterranean diet was potentially associated with a lower risk of CMM transitioning from FCMD, particularly during shorter follow-up periods.