Chantelle Burton, Seppe Lampe, Douglas I. Kelley, Wim Thiery, Stijn Hantson, Nikos Christidis, Lukas Gudmundsson, Matthew Forrest, Eleanor Burke, Jinfeng Chang, Huilin Huang, Akihiko Ito, Sian Kou-Giesbrecht, Gitta Lasslop, Wei Li, Lars Nieradzik, Fang Li, Yang Chen, James Randerson, Christopher P. O. Reyer, Matthias Mengel
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引用次数: 0
摘要
全球许多地区的火灾行为正在发生变化。然而,火灾天气、燃料、土地利用、管理和点火之间的非线性相互作用阻碍了全球烧毁面积变化的正式归因。在这里,我们利用一组全球火灾模型证明,气候变化越来越多地解释了区域燃烧面积模式。模拟结果表明,2003-2019 年,气候变化使全球烧毁面积增加了 15.8%(95% 置信区间 [13.1-18.7]),并使全球烧毁面积超过平均水平的月份的概率增加了 22%(95% 置信区间 [18-26])。相比之下,其他人类影响因素则使同期的焚烧面积减少了 19.1%(95% CI [21.9-15.8])。此外,气候变化对全球烧毁面积的影响每年增加 0.22% (95% CI [0.22-0.24]),其中澳大利亚中部的增幅最大。我们的研究结果凸显了立即、大幅和持续减少温室气体排放以及景观和火灾管理策略对于稳定火灾对生命、生计和生态系统影响的重要性。
Global burned area increasingly explained by climate change
Fire behaviour is changing in many regions worldwide. However, nonlinear interactions between fire weather, fuel, land use, management and ignitions have impeded formal attribution of global burned area changes. Here, we demonstrate that climate change increasingly explains regional burned area patterns, using an ensemble of global fire models. The simulations show that climate change increased global burned area by 15.8% (95% confidence interval (CI) [13.1–18.7]) for 2003–2019 and increased the probability of experiencing months with above-average global burned area by 22% (95% CI [18–26]). In contrast, other human forcings contributed to lowering burned area by 19.1% (95% CI [21.9–15.8]) over the same period. Moreover, the contribution of climate change to burned area increased by 0.22% (95% CI [0.22–0.24]) per year globally, with the largest increase in central Australia. Our results highlight the importance of immediate, drastic and sustained GHG emission reductions along with landscape and fire management strategies to stabilize fire impacts on lives, livelihoods and ecosystems. Complex interactions between drivers have hampered efforts to understand observed changes in fire behaviour worldwide. Here fire model ensembles and impact attribution show that climate change increasingly explains changes in global burned area.
期刊介绍:
Nature Climate Change is dedicated to addressing the scientific challenge of understanding Earth's changing climate and its societal implications. As a monthly journal, it publishes significant and cutting-edge research on the nature, causes, and impacts of global climate change, as well as its implications for the economy, policy, and the world at large.
The journal publishes original research spanning the natural and social sciences, synthesizing interdisciplinary research to provide a comprehensive understanding of climate change. It upholds the high standards set by all Nature-branded journals, ensuring top-tier original research through a fair and rigorous review process, broad readership access, high standards of copy editing and production, rapid publication, and independence from academic societies and other vested interests.
Nature Climate Change serves as a platform for discussion among experts, publishing opinion, analysis, and review articles. It also features Research Highlights to highlight important developments in the field and original reporting from renowned science journalists in the form of feature articles.
Topics covered in the journal include adaptation, atmospheric science, ecology, economics, energy, impacts and vulnerability, mitigation, oceanography, policy, sociology, and sustainability, among others.