将火灾 PM2.5 造成的人类死亡归因于气候变化

IF 29.6 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Chae Yeon Park, Kiyoshi Takahashi, Shinichiro Fujimori, Thanapat Jansakoo, Chantelle Burton, Huilin Huang, Sian Kou-Giesbrecht, Christopher P. O. Reyer, Matthias Mengel, Eleanor Burke, Fang Li, Stijn Hantson, Junya Takakura, Dong Kun Lee, Tomoko Hasegawa
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引用次数: 0

摘要

气候变化加剧了火灾烟雾,排放出影响人类健康的有害空气污染物。然而,气候变化对火灾引起的健康影响的全球影响仍未量化。在这里,我们使用了三个经过充分检验的火灾-植被模型,结合化学传输模型和健康风险评估框架,将火灾细颗粒物(PM2.5)排放造成的全球人类死亡归因于气候变化。在 46,401 例(20 世纪 60 年代)至 98,748 例(2010 年代)年度火灾 PM2.5 死亡率中,有 669 例(1.2%,20 世纪 60 年代)至 12,566 例(12.8%,2010 年代)归因于气候变化。气候变化对火灾死亡率影响最大的地区是南美洲、澳大利亚和欧洲,这与相对湿度下降以及北方森林气温升高有关。相对湿度的增加降低了南亚等其他地区的火灾死亡率。我们的研究强调了气候变化在火灾死亡率中的作用,有助于公共卫生部门在敏感的火灾易发地区采取有针对性的空间适应措施。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

Attributing human mortality from fire PM2.5 to climate change

Attributing human mortality from fire PM2.5 to climate change

Attributing human mortality from fire PM2.5 to climate change
Climate change intensifies fire smoke, emitting hazardous air pollutants that impact human health. However, the global influence of climate change on fire-induced health impacts remains unquantified. Here we used three well-tested fire–vegetation models in combination with a chemical transport model and health risk assessment framework to attribute global human mortality from fire fine particulate matter (PM2.5) emissions to climate change. Of the 46,401 (1960s) to 98,748 (2010s) annual fire PM2.5 mortalities, 669 (1.2%, 1960s) to 12,566 (12.8%, 2010s) were attributed to climate change. The most substantial influence of climate change on fire mortality occurred in South America, Australia and Europe, coinciding with decreased relative humidity and in boreal forests with increased air temperature. Increasing relative humidity lowered fire mortality in other regions, such as South Asia. Our study highlights the role of climate change in fire mortality, aiding public health authorities in spatial targeting adaptation measures for sensitive fire-prone areas. The authors combine fire–vegetation models, a chemical transport model and a health risk model to link human mortality from fire emissions to climate change. They estimate that 12.8% of mortalities in 2010 were linked to climate change, with South America, Australia, Europe and boreal forests most impacted.
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来源期刊
Nature Climate Change
Nature Climate Change ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES-METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
CiteScore
40.30
自引率
1.60%
发文量
267
审稿时长
4-8 weeks
期刊介绍: Nature Climate Change is dedicated to addressing the scientific challenge of understanding Earth's changing climate and its societal implications. As a monthly journal, it publishes significant and cutting-edge research on the nature, causes, and impacts of global climate change, as well as its implications for the economy, policy, and the world at large. The journal publishes original research spanning the natural and social sciences, synthesizing interdisciplinary research to provide a comprehensive understanding of climate change. It upholds the high standards set by all Nature-branded journals, ensuring top-tier original research through a fair and rigorous review process, broad readership access, high standards of copy editing and production, rapid publication, and independence from academic societies and other vested interests. Nature Climate Change serves as a platform for discussion among experts, publishing opinion, analysis, and review articles. It also features Research Highlights to highlight important developments in the field and original reporting from renowned science journalists in the form of feature articles. Topics covered in the journal include adaptation, atmospheric science, ecology, economics, energy, impacts and vulnerability, mitigation, oceanography, policy, sociology, and sustainability, among others.
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