P. Ceppi, T. A. Myers, P. Nowack, C. J. Wall, M. D. Zelinka
{"title":"普遍气候模式偏差对低云反馈的影响","authors":"P. Ceppi, T. A. Myers, P. Nowack, C. J. Wall, M. D. Zelinka","doi":"10.1029/2024gl110525","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"How low clouds respond to warming constitutes a key uncertainty for climate projections. Here we observationally constrain low-cloud feedback through a controlling factor analysis based on ridge regression. We find a moderately positive global low-cloud feedback (0.45 W <span data-altimg=\"/cms/asset/3c90653b-d9fd-401c-bc79-fbff79fbf570/grl68323-math-0001.png\"></span><mjx-container ctxtmenu_counter=\"88\" ctxtmenu_oldtabindex=\"1\" jax=\"CHTML\" role=\"application\" sre-explorer- style=\"font-size: 103%; position: relative;\" tabindex=\"0\"><mjx-math aria-hidden=\"true\" location=\"graphic/grl68323-math-0001.png\"><mjx-semantics><mjx-mrow><mjx-msup data-semantic-children=\"0,3\" data-semantic- data-semantic-role=\"latinletter\" data-semantic-speech=\"normal m Superscript negative 2\" data-semantic-type=\"superscript\"><mjx-mi data-semantic-annotation=\"clearspeak:simple\" data-semantic-font=\"normal\" data-semantic- data-semantic-parent=\"4\" data-semantic-role=\"latinletter\" data-semantic-type=\"identifier\"><mjx-c></mjx-c></mjx-mi><mjx-script style=\"vertical-align: 0.363em;\"><mjx-mrow data-semantic-annotation=\"clearspeak:simple\" data-semantic-children=\"2\" data-semantic-content=\"1\" data-semantic- data-semantic-parent=\"4\" data-semantic-role=\"negative\" data-semantic-type=\"prefixop\" size=\"s\"><mjx-mo data-semantic- data-semantic-operator=\"prefixop,−\" data-semantic-parent=\"3\" data-semantic-role=\"subtraction\" data-semantic-type=\"operator\" rspace=\"1\"><mjx-c></mjx-c></mjx-mo><mjx-mn data-semantic-annotation=\"clearspeak:simple\" data-semantic-font=\"normal\" data-semantic- data-semantic-parent=\"3\" data-semantic-role=\"integer\" data-semantic-type=\"number\"><mjx-c></mjx-c></mjx-mn></mjx-mrow></mjx-script></mjx-msup></mjx-mrow></mjx-semantics></mjx-math><mjx-assistive-mml display=\"inline\" unselectable=\"on\"><math altimg=\"urn:x-wiley:00948276:media:grl68323:grl68323-math-0001\" display=\"inline\" location=\"graphic/grl68323-math-0001.png\" xmlns=\"http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML\"><semantics><mrow><msup data-semantic-=\"\" data-semantic-children=\"0,3\" data-semantic-role=\"latinletter\" data-semantic-speech=\"normal m Superscript negative 2\" data-semantic-type=\"superscript\"><mi data-semantic-=\"\" data-semantic-annotation=\"clearspeak:simple\" data-semantic-font=\"normal\" data-semantic-parent=\"4\" data-semantic-role=\"latinletter\" data-semantic-type=\"identifier\" mathvariant=\"normal\">m</mi><mrow data-semantic-=\"\" data-semantic-annotation=\"clearspeak:simple\" data-semantic-children=\"2\" data-semantic-content=\"1\" data-semantic-parent=\"4\" data-semantic-role=\"negative\" data-semantic-type=\"prefixop\"><mo data-semantic-=\"\" data-semantic-operator=\"prefixop,−\" data-semantic-parent=\"3\" data-semantic-role=\"subtraction\" data-semantic-type=\"operator\">−</mo><mn data-semantic-=\"\" data-semantic-annotation=\"clearspeak:simple\" data-semantic-font=\"normal\" data-semantic-parent=\"3\" data-semantic-role=\"integer\" data-semantic-type=\"number\">2</mn></mrow></msup></mrow>${\\mathrm{m}}^{-2}$</annotation></semantics></math></mjx-assistive-mml></mjx-container> <span data-altimg=\"/cms/asset/b41a7dc3-46e8-4530-a703-d0c35bcc5ac8/grl68323-math-0002.png\"></span><mjx-container ctxtmenu_counter=\"89\" ctxtmenu_oldtabindex=\"1\" jax=\"CHTML\" role=\"application\" sre-explorer- style=\"font-size: 103%; position: relative;\" tabindex=\"0\"><mjx-math aria-hidden=\"true\" location=\"graphic/grl68323-math-0002.png\"><mjx-semantics><mjx-mrow><mjx-msup data-semantic-children=\"0,3\" data-semantic- data-semantic-role=\"latinletter\" data-semantic-speech=\"normal upper K Superscript negative 1\" data-semantic-type=\"superscript\"><mjx-mi data-semantic-annotation=\"clearspeak:simple\" data-semantic-font=\"normal\" data-semantic- data-semantic-parent=\"4\" data-semantic-role=\"latinletter\" data-semantic-type=\"identifier\"><mjx-c></mjx-c></mjx-mi><mjx-script style=\"vertical-align: 0.363em;\"><mjx-mrow data-semantic-annotation=\"clearspeak:simple\" data-semantic-children=\"2\" data-semantic-content=\"1\" data-semantic- data-semantic-parent=\"4\" data-semantic-role=\"negative\" data-semantic-type=\"prefixop\" size=\"s\"><mjx-mo data-semantic- data-semantic-operator=\"prefixop,−\" data-semantic-parent=\"3\" data-semantic-role=\"subtraction\" data-semantic-type=\"operator\" rspace=\"1\"><mjx-c></mjx-c></mjx-mo><mjx-mn data-semantic-annotation=\"clearspeak:simple\" data-semantic-font=\"normal\" data-semantic- data-semantic-parent=\"3\" data-semantic-role=\"integer\" data-semantic-type=\"number\"><mjx-c></mjx-c></mjx-mn></mjx-mrow></mjx-script></mjx-msup></mjx-mrow></mjx-semantics></mjx-math><mjx-assistive-mml display=\"inline\" unselectable=\"on\"><math altimg=\"urn:x-wiley:00948276:media:grl68323:grl68323-math-0002\" display=\"inline\" location=\"graphic/grl68323-math-0002.png\" xmlns=\"http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML\"><semantics><mrow><msup data-semantic-=\"\" data-semantic-children=\"0,3\" data-semantic-role=\"latinletter\" data-semantic-speech=\"normal upper K Superscript negative 1\" data-semantic-type=\"superscript\"><mi data-semantic-=\"\" data-semantic-annotation=\"clearspeak:simple\" data-semantic-font=\"normal\" data-semantic-parent=\"4\" data-semantic-role=\"latinletter\" data-semantic-type=\"identifier\" mathvariant=\"normal\">K</mi><mrow data-semantic-=\"\" data-semantic-annotation=\"clearspeak:simple\" data-semantic-children=\"2\" data-semantic-content=\"1\" data-semantic-parent=\"4\" data-semantic-role=\"negative\" data-semantic-type=\"prefixop\"><mo data-semantic-=\"\" data-semantic-operator=\"prefixop,−\" data-semantic-parent=\"3\" data-semantic-role=\"subtraction\" data-semantic-type=\"operator\">−</mo><mn data-semantic-=\"\" data-semantic-annotation=\"clearspeak:simple\" data-semantic-font=\"normal\" data-semantic-parent=\"3\" data-semantic-role=\"integer\" data-semantic-type=\"number\">1</mn></mrow></msup></mrow>${\\mathrm{K}}^{-1}$</annotation></semantics></math></mjx-assistive-mml></mjx-container>, 90% range 0.18–0.72 W <span data-altimg=\"/cms/asset/a471d417-db64-458b-a640-40d59578db6c/grl68323-math-0003.png\"></span><mjx-container ctxtmenu_counter=\"90\" ctxtmenu_oldtabindex=\"1\" jax=\"CHTML\" role=\"application\" sre-explorer- style=\"font-size: 103%; position: relative;\" tabindex=\"0\"><mjx-math aria-hidden=\"true\" location=\"graphic/grl68323-math-0003.png\"><mjx-semantics><mjx-mrow><mjx-msup data-semantic-children=\"0,3\" data-semantic- data-semantic-role=\"latinletter\" data-semantic-speech=\"normal m Superscript negative 2\" data-semantic-type=\"superscript\"><mjx-mi data-semantic-annotation=\"clearspeak:simple\" data-semantic-font=\"normal\" data-semantic- data-semantic-parent=\"4\" data-semantic-role=\"latinletter\" data-semantic-type=\"identifier\"><mjx-c></mjx-c></mjx-mi><mjx-script style=\"vertical-align: 0.363em;\"><mjx-mrow data-semantic-annotation=\"clearspeak:simple\" data-semantic-children=\"2\" data-semantic-content=\"1\" data-semantic- data-semantic-parent=\"4\" data-semantic-role=\"negative\" data-semantic-type=\"prefixop\" size=\"s\"><mjx-mo data-semantic- data-semantic-operator=\"prefixop,−\" data-semantic-parent=\"3\" data-semantic-role=\"subtraction\" data-semantic-type=\"operator\" rspace=\"1\"><mjx-c></mjx-c></mjx-mo><mjx-mn data-semantic-annotation=\"clearspeak:simple\" data-semantic-font=\"normal\" data-semantic- data-semantic-parent=\"3\" data-semantic-role=\"integer\" data-semantic-type=\"number\"><mjx-c></mjx-c></mjx-mn></mjx-mrow></mjx-script></mjx-msup></mjx-mrow></mjx-semantics></mjx-math><mjx-assistive-mml display=\"inline\" unselectable=\"on\"><math altimg=\"urn:x-wiley:00948276:media:grl68323:grl68323-math-0003\" display=\"inline\" location=\"graphic/grl68323-math-0003.png\" xmlns=\"http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML\"><semantics><mrow><msup data-semantic-=\"\" data-semantic-children=\"0,3\" data-semantic-role=\"latinletter\" data-semantic-speech=\"normal m Superscript negative 2\" data-semantic-type=\"superscript\"><mi data-semantic-=\"\" data-semantic-annotation=\"clearspeak:simple\" data-semantic-font=\"normal\" data-semantic-parent=\"4\" data-semantic-role=\"latinletter\" data-semantic-type=\"identifier\" mathvariant=\"normal\">m</mi><mrow data-semantic-=\"\" data-semantic-annotation=\"clearspeak:simple\" data-semantic-children=\"2\" data-semantic-content=\"1\" data-semantic-parent=\"4\" data-semantic-role=\"negative\" data-semantic-type=\"prefixop\"><mo data-semantic-=\"\" data-semantic-operator=\"prefixop,−\" data-semantic-parent=\"3\" data-semantic-role=\"subtraction\" data-semantic-type=\"operator\">−</mo><mn data-semantic-=\"\" data-semantic-annotation=\"clearspeak:simple\" data-semantic-font=\"normal\" data-semantic-parent=\"3\" data-semantic-role=\"integer\" data-semantic-type=\"number\">2</mn></mrow></msup></mrow>${\\mathrm{m}}^{-2}$</annotation></semantics></math></mjx-assistive-mml></mjx-container> <span data-altimg=\"/cms/asset/96a9f1a1-16da-4fd1-bb3a-127093838128/grl68323-math-0004.png\"></span><mjx-container ctxtmenu_counter=\"91\" ctxtmenu_oldtabindex=\"1\" jax=\"CHTML\" role=\"application\" sre-explorer- style=\"font-size: 103%; position: relative;\" tabindex=\"0\"><mjx-math aria-hidden=\"true\" location=\"graphic/grl68323-math-0004.png\"><mjx-semantics><mjx-mrow><mjx-msup data-semantic-children=\"0,3\" data-semantic- data-semantic-role=\"latinletter\" data-semantic-speech=\"normal upper K Superscript negative 1\" data-semantic-type=\"superscript\"><mjx-mi data-semantic-annotation=\"clearspeak:simple\" data-semantic-font=\"normal\" data-semantic- data-semantic-parent=\"4\" data-semantic-role=\"latinletter\" data-semantic-type=\"identifier\"><mjx-c></mjx-c></mjx-mi><mjx-script style=\"vertical-align: 0.363em;\"><mjx-mrow data-semantic-annotation=\"clearspeak:simple\" data-semantic-children=\"2\" data-semantic-content=\"1\" data-semantic- data-semantic-parent=\"4\" data-semantic-role=\"negative\" data-semantic-type=\"prefixop\" size=\"s\"><mjx-mo data-semantic- data-semantic-operator=\"prefixop,−\" data-semantic-parent=\"3\" data-semantic-role=\"subtraction\" data-semantic-type=\"operator\" rspace=\"1\"><mjx-c></mjx-c></mjx-mo><mjx-mn data-semantic-annotation=\"clearspeak:simple\" data-semantic-font=\"normal\" data-semantic- data-semantic-parent=\"3\" data-semantic-role=\"integer\" data-semantic-type=\"number\"><mjx-c></mjx-c></mjx-mn></mjx-mrow></mjx-script></mjx-msup></mjx-mrow></mjx-semantics></mjx-math><mjx-assistive-mml display=\"inline\" unselectable=\"on\"><math altimg=\"urn:x-wiley:00948276:media:grl68323:grl68323-math-0004\" display=\"inline\" location=\"graphic/grl68323-math-0004.png\" xmlns=\"http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML\"><semantics><mrow><msup data-semantic-=\"\" data-semantic-children=\"0,3\" data-semantic-role=\"latinletter\" data-semantic-speech=\"normal upper K Superscript negative 1\" data-semantic-type=\"superscript\"><mi data-semantic-=\"\" data-semantic-annotation=\"clearspeak:simple\" data-semantic-font=\"normal\" data-semantic-parent=\"4\" data-semantic-role=\"latinletter\" data-semantic-type=\"identifier\" mathvariant=\"normal\">K</mi><mrow data-semantic-=\"\" data-semantic-annotation=\"clearspeak:simple\" data-semantic-children=\"2\" data-semantic-content=\"1\" data-semantic-parent=\"4\" data-semantic-role=\"negative\" data-semantic-type=\"prefixop\"><mo data-semantic-=\"\" data-semantic-operator=\"prefixop,−\" data-semantic-parent=\"3\" data-semantic-role=\"subtraction\" data-semantic-type=\"operator\">−</mo><mn data-semantic-=\"\" data-semantic-annotation=\"clearspeak:simple\" data-semantic-font=\"normal\" data-semantic-parent=\"3\" data-semantic-role=\"integer\" data-semantic-type=\"number\">1</mn></mrow></msup></mrow>${\\mathrm{K}}^{-1}$</annotation></semantics></math></mjx-assistive-mml></mjx-container>), about twice the mean value (0.22 W <span data-altimg=\"/cms/asset/21dcba7a-522a-4ab7-9df8-01651f9c24a3/grl68323-math-0005.png\"></span><mjx-container ctxtmenu_counter=\"92\" ctxtmenu_oldtabindex=\"1\" jax=\"CHTML\" role=\"application\" sre-explorer- style=\"font-size: 103%; position: relative;\" tabindex=\"0\"><mjx-math aria-hidden=\"true\" location=\"graphic/grl68323-math-0005.png\"><mjx-semantics><mjx-mrow><mjx-msup data-semantic-children=\"0,3\" data-semantic- data-semantic-role=\"latinletter\" data-semantic-speech=\"normal m Superscript negative 2\" data-semantic-type=\"superscript\"><mjx-mi data-semantic-annotation=\"clearspeak:simple\" data-semantic-font=\"normal\" data-semantic- data-semantic-parent=\"4\" data-semantic-role=\"latinletter\" data-semantic-type=\"identifier\"><mjx-c></mjx-c></mjx-mi><mjx-script style=\"vertical-align: 0.363em;\"><mjx-mrow data-semantic-annotation=\"clearspeak:simple\" data-semantic-children=\"2\" data-semantic-content=\"1\" data-semantic- data-semantic-parent=\"4\" data-semantic-role=\"negative\" data-semantic-type=\"prefixop\" size=\"s\"><mjx-mo data-semantic- data-semantic-operator=\"prefixop,−\" data-semantic-parent=\"3\" data-semantic-role=\"subtraction\" data-semantic-type=\"operator\" rspace=\"1\"><mjx-c></mjx-c></mjx-mo><mjx-mn data-semantic-annotation=\"clearspeak:simple\" data-semantic-font=\"normal\" data-semantic- data-semantic-parent=\"3\" data-semantic-role=\"integer\" data-semantic-type=\"number\"><mjx-c></mjx-c></mjx-mn></mjx-mrow></mjx-script></mjx-msup></mjx-mrow></mjx-semantics></mjx-math><mjx-assistive-mml display=\"inline\" unselectable=\"on\"><math altimg=\"urn:x-wiley:00948276:media:grl68323:grl68323-math-0005\" display=\"inline\" location=\"graphic/grl68323-math-0005.png\" xmlns=\"http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML\"><semantics><mrow><msup data-semantic-=\"\" data-semantic-children=\"0,3\" data-semantic-role=\"latinletter\" data-semantic-speech=\"normal m Superscript negative 2\" data-semantic-type=\"superscript\"><mi data-semantic-=\"\" data-semantic-annotation=\"clearspeak:simple\" data-semantic-font=\"normal\" data-semantic-parent=\"4\" data-semantic-role=\"latinletter\" data-semantic-type=\"identifier\" mathvariant=\"normal\">m</mi><mrow data-semantic-=\"\" data-semantic-annotation=\"clearspeak:simple\" data-semantic-children=\"2\" data-semantic-content=\"1\" data-semantic-parent=\"4\" data-semantic-role=\"negative\" data-semantic-type=\"prefixop\"><mo data-semantic-=\"\" data-semantic-operator=\"prefixop,−\" data-semantic-parent=\"3\" data-semantic-role=\"subtraction\" data-semantic-type=\"operator\">−</mo><mn data-semantic-=\"\" data-semantic-annotation=\"clearspeak:simple\" data-semantic-font=\"normal\" data-semantic-parent=\"3\" data-semantic-role=\"integer\" data-semantic-type=\"number\">2</mn></mrow></msup></mrow>${\\mathrm{m}}^{-2}$</annotation></semantics></math></mjx-assistive-mml></mjx-container> <span data-altimg=\"/cms/asset/f388afb9-2a97-4b7e-bf64-3a282a116e98/grl68323-math-0006.png\"></span><mjx-container ctxtmenu_counter=\"93\" ctxtmenu_oldtabindex=\"1\" jax=\"CHTML\" role=\"application\" sre-explorer- style=\"font-size: 103%; position: relative;\" tabindex=\"0\"><mjx-math aria-hidden=\"true\" location=\"graphic/grl68323-math-0006.png\"><mjx-semantics><mjx-mrow><mjx-msup data-semantic-children=\"0,3\" data-semantic- data-semantic-role=\"latinletter\" data-semantic-speech=\"normal upper K Superscript negative 1\" data-semantic-type=\"superscript\"><mjx-mi data-semantic-annotation=\"clearspeak:simple\" data-semantic-font=\"normal\" data-semantic- data-semantic-parent=\"4\" data-semantic-role=\"latinletter\" data-semantic-type=\"identifier\"><mjx-c></mjx-c></mjx-mi><mjx-script style=\"vertical-align: 0.363em;\"><mjx-mrow data-semantic-annotation=\"clearspeak:simple\" data-semantic-children=\"2\" data-semantic-content=\"1\" data-semantic- data-semantic-parent=\"4\" data-semantic-role=\"negative\" data-semantic-type=\"prefixop\" size=\"s\"><mjx-mo data-semantic- data-semantic-operator=\"prefixop,−\" data-semantic-parent=\"3\" data-semantic-role=\"subtraction\" data-semantic-type=\"operator\" rspace=\"1\"><mjx-c></mjx-c></mjx-mo><mjx-mn data-semantic-annotation=\"clearspeak:simple\" data-semantic-font=\"normal\" data-semantic- data-semantic-parent=\"3\" data-semantic-role=\"integer\" data-semantic-type=\"number\"><mjx-c></mjx-c></mjx-mn></mjx-mrow></mjx-script></mjx-msup></mjx-mrow></mjx-semantics></mjx-math><mjx-assistive-mml display=\"inline\" unselectable=\"on\"><math altimg=\"urn:x-wiley:00948276:media:grl68323:grl68323-math-0006\" display=\"inline\" location=\"graphic/grl68323-math-0006.png\" xmlns=\"http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML\"><semantics><mrow><msup data-semantic-=\"\" data-semantic-children=\"0,3\" data-semantic-role=\"latinletter\" data-semantic-speech=\"normal upper K Superscript negative 1\" data-semantic-type=\"superscript\"><mi data-semantic-=\"\" data-semantic-annotation=\"clearspeak:simple\" data-semantic-font=\"normal\" data-semantic-parent=\"4\" data-semantic-role=\"latinletter\" data-semantic-type=\"identifier\" mathvariant=\"normal\">K</mi><mrow data-semantic-=\"\" data-semantic-annotation=\"clearspeak:simple\" data-semantic-children=\"2\" data-semantic-content=\"1\" data-semantic-parent=\"4\" data-semantic-role=\"negative\" data-semantic-type=\"prefixop\"><mo data-semantic-=\"\" data-semantic-operator=\"prefixop,−\" data-semantic-parent=\"3\" data-semantic-role=\"subtraction\" data-semantic-type=\"operator\">−</mo><mn data-semantic-=\"\" data-semantic-annotation=\"clearspeak:simple\" data-semantic-font=\"normal\" data-semantic-parent=\"3\" data-semantic-role=\"integer\" data-semantic-type=\"number\">1</mn></mrow></msup></mrow>${\\mathrm{K}}^{-1}$</annotation></semantics></math></mjx-assistive-mml></mjx-container>) of 16 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. We link this discrepancy to a pervasive model mean-state bias: models underestimate the low-cloud response to warming because (a) they systematically underestimate present-day tropical marine low-cloud amount, and (b) the low-cloud sensitivity to warming is proportional to this present-day low-cloud amount. Our results hence highlight the importance of reducing model biases in both the mean state of clouds and their sensitivity to environmental factors for accurate climate change projections.","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.6000,"publicationDate":"2024-10-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Implications of a Pervasive Climate Model Bias for Low-Cloud Feedback\",\"authors\":\"P. Ceppi, T. A. Myers, P. Nowack, C. J. Wall, M. D. Zelinka\",\"doi\":\"10.1029/2024gl110525\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"How low clouds respond to warming constitutes a key uncertainty for climate projections. Here we observationally constrain low-cloud feedback through a controlling factor analysis based on ridge regression. We find a moderately positive global low-cloud feedback (0.45 W <span data-altimg=\\\"/cms/asset/3c90653b-d9fd-401c-bc79-fbff79fbf570/grl68323-math-0001.png\\\"></span><mjx-container ctxtmenu_counter=\\\"88\\\" ctxtmenu_oldtabindex=\\\"1\\\" jax=\\\"CHTML\\\" role=\\\"application\\\" sre-explorer- style=\\\"font-size: 103%; position: relative;\\\" tabindex=\\\"0\\\"><mjx-math aria-hidden=\\\"true\\\" location=\\\"graphic/grl68323-math-0001.png\\\"><mjx-semantics><mjx-mrow><mjx-msup data-semantic-children=\\\"0,3\\\" data-semantic- data-semantic-role=\\\"latinletter\\\" data-semantic-speech=\\\"normal m Superscript negative 2\\\" data-semantic-type=\\\"superscript\\\"><mjx-mi data-semantic-annotation=\\\"clearspeak:simple\\\" data-semantic-font=\\\"normal\\\" data-semantic- data-semantic-parent=\\\"4\\\" data-semantic-role=\\\"latinletter\\\" data-semantic-type=\\\"identifier\\\"><mjx-c></mjx-c></mjx-mi><mjx-script style=\\\"vertical-align: 0.363em;\\\"><mjx-mrow data-semantic-annotation=\\\"clearspeak:simple\\\" data-semantic-children=\\\"2\\\" data-semantic-content=\\\"1\\\" data-semantic- data-semantic-parent=\\\"4\\\" data-semantic-role=\\\"negative\\\" data-semantic-type=\\\"prefixop\\\" size=\\\"s\\\"><mjx-mo data-semantic- data-semantic-operator=\\\"prefixop,−\\\" data-semantic-parent=\\\"3\\\" data-semantic-role=\\\"subtraction\\\" data-semantic-type=\\\"operator\\\" rspace=\\\"1\\\"><mjx-c></mjx-c></mjx-mo><mjx-mn data-semantic-annotation=\\\"clearspeak:simple\\\" data-semantic-font=\\\"normal\\\" data-semantic- data-semantic-parent=\\\"3\\\" data-semantic-role=\\\"integer\\\" data-semantic-type=\\\"number\\\"><mjx-c></mjx-c></mjx-mn></mjx-mrow></mjx-script></mjx-msup></mjx-mrow></mjx-semantics></mjx-math><mjx-assistive-mml display=\\\"inline\\\" unselectable=\\\"on\\\"><math altimg=\\\"urn:x-wiley:00948276:media:grl68323:grl68323-math-0001\\\" display=\\\"inline\\\" location=\\\"graphic/grl68323-math-0001.png\\\" xmlns=\\\"http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML\\\"><semantics><mrow><msup data-semantic-=\\\"\\\" data-semantic-children=\\\"0,3\\\" data-semantic-role=\\\"latinletter\\\" data-semantic-speech=\\\"normal m Superscript negative 2\\\" data-semantic-type=\\\"superscript\\\"><mi data-semantic-=\\\"\\\" data-semantic-annotation=\\\"clearspeak:simple\\\" data-semantic-font=\\\"normal\\\" data-semantic-parent=\\\"4\\\" data-semantic-role=\\\"latinletter\\\" data-semantic-type=\\\"identifier\\\" mathvariant=\\\"normal\\\">m</mi><mrow data-semantic-=\\\"\\\" data-semantic-annotation=\\\"clearspeak:simple\\\" data-semantic-children=\\\"2\\\" data-semantic-content=\\\"1\\\" data-semantic-parent=\\\"4\\\" data-semantic-role=\\\"negative\\\" data-semantic-type=\\\"prefixop\\\"><mo data-semantic-=\\\"\\\" data-semantic-operator=\\\"prefixop,−\\\" data-semantic-parent=\\\"3\\\" data-semantic-role=\\\"subtraction\\\" data-semantic-type=\\\"operator\\\">−</mo><mn data-semantic-=\\\"\\\" data-semantic-annotation=\\\"clearspeak:simple\\\" data-semantic-font=\\\"normal\\\" data-semantic-parent=\\\"3\\\" data-semantic-role=\\\"integer\\\" data-semantic-type=\\\"number\\\">2</mn></mrow></msup></mrow>${\\\\mathrm{m}}^{-2}$</annotation></semantics></math></mjx-assistive-mml></mjx-container> <span data-altimg=\\\"/cms/asset/b41a7dc3-46e8-4530-a703-d0c35bcc5ac8/grl68323-math-0002.png\\\"></span><mjx-container ctxtmenu_counter=\\\"89\\\" ctxtmenu_oldtabindex=\\\"1\\\" jax=\\\"CHTML\\\" role=\\\"application\\\" sre-explorer- style=\\\"font-size: 103%; position: relative;\\\" tabindex=\\\"0\\\"><mjx-math aria-hidden=\\\"true\\\" location=\\\"graphic/grl68323-math-0002.png\\\"><mjx-semantics><mjx-mrow><mjx-msup data-semantic-children=\\\"0,3\\\" data-semantic- data-semantic-role=\\\"latinletter\\\" data-semantic-speech=\\\"normal upper K Superscript negative 1\\\" data-semantic-type=\\\"superscript\\\"><mjx-mi data-semantic-annotation=\\\"clearspeak:simple\\\" data-semantic-font=\\\"normal\\\" data-semantic- data-semantic-parent=\\\"4\\\" data-semantic-role=\\\"latinletter\\\" data-semantic-type=\\\"identifier\\\"><mjx-c></mjx-c></mjx-mi><mjx-script style=\\\"vertical-align: 0.363em;\\\"><mjx-mrow data-semantic-annotation=\\\"clearspeak:simple\\\" data-semantic-children=\\\"2\\\" data-semantic-content=\\\"1\\\" data-semantic- data-semantic-parent=\\\"4\\\" data-semantic-role=\\\"negative\\\" data-semantic-type=\\\"prefixop\\\" size=\\\"s\\\"><mjx-mo data-semantic- data-semantic-operator=\\\"prefixop,−\\\" data-semantic-parent=\\\"3\\\" data-semantic-role=\\\"subtraction\\\" data-semantic-type=\\\"operator\\\" rspace=\\\"1\\\"><mjx-c></mjx-c></mjx-mo><mjx-mn data-semantic-annotation=\\\"clearspeak:simple\\\" data-semantic-font=\\\"normal\\\" data-semantic- data-semantic-parent=\\\"3\\\" data-semantic-role=\\\"integer\\\" data-semantic-type=\\\"number\\\"><mjx-c></mjx-c></mjx-mn></mjx-mrow></mjx-script></mjx-msup></mjx-mrow></mjx-semantics></mjx-math><mjx-assistive-mml display=\\\"inline\\\" unselectable=\\\"on\\\"><math altimg=\\\"urn:x-wiley:00948276:media:grl68323:grl68323-math-0002\\\" display=\\\"inline\\\" location=\\\"graphic/grl68323-math-0002.png\\\" xmlns=\\\"http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML\\\"><semantics><mrow><msup data-semantic-=\\\"\\\" data-semantic-children=\\\"0,3\\\" data-semantic-role=\\\"latinletter\\\" data-semantic-speech=\\\"normal upper K Superscript negative 1\\\" data-semantic-type=\\\"superscript\\\"><mi data-semantic-=\\\"\\\" data-semantic-annotation=\\\"clearspeak:simple\\\" data-semantic-font=\\\"normal\\\" data-semantic-parent=\\\"4\\\" data-semantic-role=\\\"latinletter\\\" data-semantic-type=\\\"identifier\\\" mathvariant=\\\"normal\\\">K</mi><mrow data-semantic-=\\\"\\\" data-semantic-annotation=\\\"clearspeak:simple\\\" data-semantic-children=\\\"2\\\" data-semantic-content=\\\"1\\\" data-semantic-parent=\\\"4\\\" data-semantic-role=\\\"negative\\\" data-semantic-type=\\\"prefixop\\\"><mo data-semantic-=\\\"\\\" data-semantic-operator=\\\"prefixop,−\\\" data-semantic-parent=\\\"3\\\" data-semantic-role=\\\"subtraction\\\" data-semantic-type=\\\"operator\\\">−</mo><mn data-semantic-=\\\"\\\" data-semantic-annotation=\\\"clearspeak:simple\\\" data-semantic-font=\\\"normal\\\" data-semantic-parent=\\\"3\\\" data-semantic-role=\\\"integer\\\" data-semantic-type=\\\"number\\\">1</mn></mrow></msup></mrow>${\\\\mathrm{K}}^{-1}$</annotation></semantics></math></mjx-assistive-mml></mjx-container>, 90% range 0.18–0.72 W <span data-altimg=\\\"/cms/asset/a471d417-db64-458b-a640-40d59578db6c/grl68323-math-0003.png\\\"></span><mjx-container ctxtmenu_counter=\\\"90\\\" ctxtmenu_oldtabindex=\\\"1\\\" jax=\\\"CHTML\\\" role=\\\"application\\\" sre-explorer- style=\\\"font-size: 103%; position: relative;\\\" tabindex=\\\"0\\\"><mjx-math aria-hidden=\\\"true\\\" location=\\\"graphic/grl68323-math-0003.png\\\"><mjx-semantics><mjx-mrow><mjx-msup data-semantic-children=\\\"0,3\\\" data-semantic- data-semantic-role=\\\"latinletter\\\" data-semantic-speech=\\\"normal m Superscript negative 2\\\" data-semantic-type=\\\"superscript\\\"><mjx-mi data-semantic-annotation=\\\"clearspeak:simple\\\" data-semantic-font=\\\"normal\\\" data-semantic- data-semantic-parent=\\\"4\\\" data-semantic-role=\\\"latinletter\\\" data-semantic-type=\\\"identifier\\\"><mjx-c></mjx-c></mjx-mi><mjx-script style=\\\"vertical-align: 0.363em;\\\"><mjx-mrow data-semantic-annotation=\\\"clearspeak:simple\\\" data-semantic-children=\\\"2\\\" data-semantic-content=\\\"1\\\" data-semantic- data-semantic-parent=\\\"4\\\" data-semantic-role=\\\"negative\\\" data-semantic-type=\\\"prefixop\\\" size=\\\"s\\\"><mjx-mo data-semantic- data-semantic-operator=\\\"prefixop,−\\\" data-semantic-parent=\\\"3\\\" data-semantic-role=\\\"subtraction\\\" data-semantic-type=\\\"operator\\\" rspace=\\\"1\\\"><mjx-c></mjx-c></mjx-mo><mjx-mn data-semantic-annotation=\\\"clearspeak:simple\\\" data-semantic-font=\\\"normal\\\" data-semantic- data-semantic-parent=\\\"3\\\" data-semantic-role=\\\"integer\\\" data-semantic-type=\\\"number\\\"><mjx-c></mjx-c></mjx-mn></mjx-mrow></mjx-script></mjx-msup></mjx-mrow></mjx-semantics></mjx-math><mjx-assistive-mml display=\\\"inline\\\" unselectable=\\\"on\\\"><math altimg=\\\"urn:x-wiley:00948276:media:grl68323:grl68323-math-0003\\\" display=\\\"inline\\\" location=\\\"graphic/grl68323-math-0003.png\\\" xmlns=\\\"http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML\\\"><semantics><mrow><msup data-semantic-=\\\"\\\" data-semantic-children=\\\"0,3\\\" data-semantic-role=\\\"latinletter\\\" data-semantic-speech=\\\"normal m Superscript negative 2\\\" data-semantic-type=\\\"superscript\\\"><mi data-semantic-=\\\"\\\" data-semantic-annotation=\\\"clearspeak:simple\\\" data-semantic-font=\\\"normal\\\" data-semantic-parent=\\\"4\\\" data-semantic-role=\\\"latinletter\\\" data-semantic-type=\\\"identifier\\\" mathvariant=\\\"normal\\\">m</mi><mrow data-semantic-=\\\"\\\" data-semantic-annotation=\\\"clearspeak:simple\\\" data-semantic-children=\\\"2\\\" data-semantic-content=\\\"1\\\" data-semantic-parent=\\\"4\\\" data-semantic-role=\\\"negative\\\" data-semantic-type=\\\"prefixop\\\"><mo data-semantic-=\\\"\\\" data-semantic-operator=\\\"prefixop,−\\\" data-semantic-parent=\\\"3\\\" data-semantic-role=\\\"subtraction\\\" data-semantic-type=\\\"operator\\\">−</mo><mn data-semantic-=\\\"\\\" data-semantic-annotation=\\\"clearspeak:simple\\\" data-semantic-font=\\\"normal\\\" data-semantic-parent=\\\"3\\\" data-semantic-role=\\\"integer\\\" data-semantic-type=\\\"number\\\">2</mn></mrow></msup></mrow>${\\\\mathrm{m}}^{-2}$</annotation></semantics></math></mjx-assistive-mml></mjx-container> <span data-altimg=\\\"/cms/asset/96a9f1a1-16da-4fd1-bb3a-127093838128/grl68323-math-0004.png\\\"></span><mjx-container ctxtmenu_counter=\\\"91\\\" ctxtmenu_oldtabindex=\\\"1\\\" jax=\\\"CHTML\\\" role=\\\"application\\\" sre-explorer- style=\\\"font-size: 103%; position: relative;\\\" tabindex=\\\"0\\\"><mjx-math aria-hidden=\\\"true\\\" location=\\\"graphic/grl68323-math-0004.png\\\"><mjx-semantics><mjx-mrow><mjx-msup data-semantic-children=\\\"0,3\\\" data-semantic- data-semantic-role=\\\"latinletter\\\" data-semantic-speech=\\\"normal upper K Superscript negative 1\\\" data-semantic-type=\\\"superscript\\\"><mjx-mi data-semantic-annotation=\\\"clearspeak:simple\\\" data-semantic-font=\\\"normal\\\" data-semantic- data-semantic-parent=\\\"4\\\" data-semantic-role=\\\"latinletter\\\" data-semantic-type=\\\"identifier\\\"><mjx-c></mjx-c></mjx-mi><mjx-script style=\\\"vertical-align: 0.363em;\\\"><mjx-mrow data-semantic-annotation=\\\"clearspeak:simple\\\" data-semantic-children=\\\"2\\\" data-semantic-content=\\\"1\\\" data-semantic- data-semantic-parent=\\\"4\\\" data-semantic-role=\\\"negative\\\" data-semantic-type=\\\"prefixop\\\" size=\\\"s\\\"><mjx-mo data-semantic- data-semantic-operator=\\\"prefixop,−\\\" data-semantic-parent=\\\"3\\\" data-semantic-role=\\\"subtraction\\\" data-semantic-type=\\\"operator\\\" rspace=\\\"1\\\"><mjx-c></mjx-c></mjx-mo><mjx-mn data-semantic-annotation=\\\"clearspeak:simple\\\" data-semantic-font=\\\"normal\\\" data-semantic- data-semantic-parent=\\\"3\\\" data-semantic-role=\\\"integer\\\" data-semantic-type=\\\"number\\\"><mjx-c></mjx-c></mjx-mn></mjx-mrow></mjx-script></mjx-msup></mjx-mrow></mjx-semantics></mjx-math><mjx-assistive-mml display=\\\"inline\\\" unselectable=\\\"on\\\"><math altimg=\\\"urn:x-wiley:00948276:media:grl68323:grl68323-math-0004\\\" display=\\\"inline\\\" location=\\\"graphic/grl68323-math-0004.png\\\" xmlns=\\\"http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML\\\"><semantics><mrow><msup data-semantic-=\\\"\\\" data-semantic-children=\\\"0,3\\\" data-semantic-role=\\\"latinletter\\\" data-semantic-speech=\\\"normal upper K Superscript negative 1\\\" data-semantic-type=\\\"superscript\\\"><mi data-semantic-=\\\"\\\" data-semantic-annotation=\\\"clearspeak:simple\\\" data-semantic-font=\\\"normal\\\" data-semantic-parent=\\\"4\\\" data-semantic-role=\\\"latinletter\\\" data-semantic-type=\\\"identifier\\\" mathvariant=\\\"normal\\\">K</mi><mrow data-semantic-=\\\"\\\" data-semantic-annotation=\\\"clearspeak:simple\\\" data-semantic-children=\\\"2\\\" data-semantic-content=\\\"1\\\" data-semantic-parent=\\\"4\\\" data-semantic-role=\\\"negative\\\" data-semantic-type=\\\"prefixop\\\"><mo data-semantic-=\\\"\\\" data-semantic-operator=\\\"prefixop,−\\\" data-semantic-parent=\\\"3\\\" data-semantic-role=\\\"subtraction\\\" data-semantic-type=\\\"operator\\\">−</mo><mn data-semantic-=\\\"\\\" data-semantic-annotation=\\\"clearspeak:simple\\\" data-semantic-font=\\\"normal\\\" data-semantic-parent=\\\"3\\\" data-semantic-role=\\\"integer\\\" data-semantic-type=\\\"number\\\">1</mn></mrow></msup></mrow>${\\\\mathrm{K}}^{-1}$</annotation></semantics></math></mjx-assistive-mml></mjx-container>), about twice the mean value (0.22 W <span data-altimg=\\\"/cms/asset/21dcba7a-522a-4ab7-9df8-01651f9c24a3/grl68323-math-0005.png\\\"></span><mjx-container ctxtmenu_counter=\\\"92\\\" ctxtmenu_oldtabindex=\\\"1\\\" jax=\\\"CHTML\\\" role=\\\"application\\\" sre-explorer- style=\\\"font-size: 103%; position: relative;\\\" tabindex=\\\"0\\\"><mjx-math aria-hidden=\\\"true\\\" location=\\\"graphic/grl68323-math-0005.png\\\"><mjx-semantics><mjx-mrow><mjx-msup data-semantic-children=\\\"0,3\\\" data-semantic- data-semantic-role=\\\"latinletter\\\" data-semantic-speech=\\\"normal m Superscript negative 2\\\" data-semantic-type=\\\"superscript\\\"><mjx-mi data-semantic-annotation=\\\"clearspeak:simple\\\" data-semantic-font=\\\"normal\\\" data-semantic- data-semantic-parent=\\\"4\\\" data-semantic-role=\\\"latinletter\\\" data-semantic-type=\\\"identifier\\\"><mjx-c></mjx-c></mjx-mi><mjx-script style=\\\"vertical-align: 0.363em;\\\"><mjx-mrow data-semantic-annotation=\\\"clearspeak:simple\\\" data-semantic-children=\\\"2\\\" data-semantic-content=\\\"1\\\" data-semantic- data-semantic-parent=\\\"4\\\" data-semantic-role=\\\"negative\\\" data-semantic-type=\\\"prefixop\\\" size=\\\"s\\\"><mjx-mo data-semantic- data-semantic-operator=\\\"prefixop,−\\\" data-semantic-parent=\\\"3\\\" data-semantic-role=\\\"subtraction\\\" data-semantic-type=\\\"operator\\\" rspace=\\\"1\\\"><mjx-c></mjx-c></mjx-mo><mjx-mn data-semantic-annotation=\\\"clearspeak:simple\\\" data-semantic-font=\\\"normal\\\" data-semantic- data-semantic-parent=\\\"3\\\" data-semantic-role=\\\"integer\\\" data-semantic-type=\\\"number\\\"><mjx-c></mjx-c></mjx-mn></mjx-mrow></mjx-script></mjx-msup></mjx-mrow></mjx-semantics></mjx-math><mjx-assistive-mml display=\\\"inline\\\" unselectable=\\\"on\\\"><math altimg=\\\"urn:x-wiley:00948276:media:grl68323:grl68323-math-0005\\\" display=\\\"inline\\\" location=\\\"graphic/grl68323-math-0005.png\\\" xmlns=\\\"http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML\\\"><semantics><mrow><msup data-semantic-=\\\"\\\" data-semantic-children=\\\"0,3\\\" data-semantic-role=\\\"latinletter\\\" data-semantic-speech=\\\"normal m Superscript negative 2\\\" data-semantic-type=\\\"superscript\\\"><mi data-semantic-=\\\"\\\" data-semantic-annotation=\\\"clearspeak:simple\\\" data-semantic-font=\\\"normal\\\" data-semantic-parent=\\\"4\\\" data-semantic-role=\\\"latinletter\\\" data-semantic-type=\\\"identifier\\\" mathvariant=\\\"normal\\\">m</mi><mrow data-semantic-=\\\"\\\" data-semantic-annotation=\\\"clearspeak:simple\\\" data-semantic-children=\\\"2\\\" data-semantic-content=\\\"1\\\" data-semantic-parent=\\\"4\\\" data-semantic-role=\\\"negative\\\" data-semantic-type=\\\"prefixop\\\"><mo data-semantic-=\\\"\\\" data-semantic-operator=\\\"prefixop,−\\\" data-semantic-parent=\\\"3\\\" data-semantic-role=\\\"subtraction\\\" data-semantic-type=\\\"operator\\\">−</mo><mn data-semantic-=\\\"\\\" data-semantic-annotation=\\\"clearspeak:simple\\\" data-semantic-font=\\\"normal\\\" data-semantic-parent=\\\"3\\\" data-semantic-role=\\\"integer\\\" data-semantic-type=\\\"number\\\">2</mn></mrow></msup></mrow>${\\\\mathrm{m}}^{-2}$</annotation></semantics></math></mjx-assistive-mml></mjx-container> <span data-altimg=\\\"/cms/asset/f388afb9-2a97-4b7e-bf64-3a282a116e98/grl68323-math-0006.png\\\"></span><mjx-container ctxtmenu_counter=\\\"93\\\" ctxtmenu_oldtabindex=\\\"1\\\" jax=\\\"CHTML\\\" role=\\\"application\\\" sre-explorer- style=\\\"font-size: 103%; position: relative;\\\" tabindex=\\\"0\\\"><mjx-math aria-hidden=\\\"true\\\" location=\\\"graphic/grl68323-math-0006.png\\\"><mjx-semantics><mjx-mrow><mjx-msup data-semantic-children=\\\"0,3\\\" data-semantic- data-semantic-role=\\\"latinletter\\\" data-semantic-speech=\\\"normal upper K Superscript negative 1\\\" data-semantic-type=\\\"superscript\\\"><mjx-mi data-semantic-annotation=\\\"clearspeak:simple\\\" data-semantic-font=\\\"normal\\\" data-semantic- data-semantic-parent=\\\"4\\\" data-semantic-role=\\\"latinletter\\\" data-semantic-type=\\\"identifier\\\"><mjx-c></mjx-c></mjx-mi><mjx-script style=\\\"vertical-align: 0.363em;\\\"><mjx-mrow data-semantic-annotation=\\\"clearspeak:simple\\\" data-semantic-children=\\\"2\\\" data-semantic-content=\\\"1\\\" data-semantic- data-semantic-parent=\\\"4\\\" data-semantic-role=\\\"negative\\\" data-semantic-type=\\\"prefixop\\\" size=\\\"s\\\"><mjx-mo data-semantic- data-semantic-operator=\\\"prefixop,−\\\" data-semantic-parent=\\\"3\\\" data-semantic-role=\\\"subtraction\\\" data-semantic-type=\\\"operator\\\" rspace=\\\"1\\\"><mjx-c></mjx-c></mjx-mo><mjx-mn data-semantic-annotation=\\\"clearspeak:simple\\\" data-semantic-font=\\\"normal\\\" data-semantic- data-semantic-parent=\\\"3\\\" data-semantic-role=\\\"integer\\\" data-semantic-type=\\\"number\\\"><mjx-c></mjx-c></mjx-mn></mjx-mrow></mjx-script></mjx-msup></mjx-mrow></mjx-semantics></mjx-math><mjx-assistive-mml display=\\\"inline\\\" unselectable=\\\"on\\\"><math altimg=\\\"urn:x-wiley:00948276:media:grl68323:grl68323-math-0006\\\" display=\\\"inline\\\" location=\\\"graphic/grl68323-math-0006.png\\\" xmlns=\\\"http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML\\\"><semantics><mrow><msup data-semantic-=\\\"\\\" data-semantic-children=\\\"0,3\\\" data-semantic-role=\\\"latinletter\\\" data-semantic-speech=\\\"normal upper K Superscript negative 1\\\" data-semantic-type=\\\"superscript\\\"><mi data-semantic-=\\\"\\\" data-semantic-annotation=\\\"clearspeak:simple\\\" data-semantic-font=\\\"normal\\\" data-semantic-parent=\\\"4\\\" data-semantic-role=\\\"latinletter\\\" data-semantic-type=\\\"identifier\\\" mathvariant=\\\"normal\\\">K</mi><mrow data-semantic-=\\\"\\\" data-semantic-annotation=\\\"clearspeak:simple\\\" data-semantic-children=\\\"2\\\" data-semantic-content=\\\"1\\\" data-semantic-parent=\\\"4\\\" data-semantic-role=\\\"negative\\\" data-semantic-type=\\\"prefixop\\\"><mo data-semantic-=\\\"\\\" data-semantic-operator=\\\"prefixop,−\\\" data-semantic-parent=\\\"3\\\" data-semantic-role=\\\"subtraction\\\" data-semantic-type=\\\"operator\\\">−</mo><mn data-semantic-=\\\"\\\" data-semantic-annotation=\\\"clearspeak:simple\\\" data-semantic-font=\\\"normal\\\" data-semantic-parent=\\\"3\\\" data-semantic-role=\\\"integer\\\" data-semantic-type=\\\"number\\\">1</mn></mrow></msup></mrow>${\\\\mathrm{K}}^{-1}$</annotation></semantics></math></mjx-assistive-mml></mjx-container>) of 16 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. We link this discrepancy to a pervasive model mean-state bias: models underestimate the low-cloud response to warming because (a) they systematically underestimate present-day tropical marine low-cloud amount, and (b) the low-cloud sensitivity to warming is proportional to this present-day low-cloud amount. Our results hence highlight the importance of reducing model biases in both the mean state of clouds and their sensitivity to environmental factors for accurate climate change projections.\",\"PeriodicalId\":12523,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Geophysical Research Letters\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":4.6000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-10-19\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Geophysical Research Letters\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"89\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024gl110525\",\"RegionNum\":1,\"RegionCategory\":\"地球科学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Geophysical Research Letters","FirstCategoryId":"89","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024gl110525","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
摘要
低云如何应对气候变暖是气候预测的一个关键不确定因素。在此,我们通过基于脊回归的控制因子分析,对低云反馈进行了观测约束。我们发现全球低云反馈为中等正值(0.45 W m-2${mathrm{m}}^{-2}$ K-1${mathrm{K}}^{-1}$, 90% range 0.18-0.72 W m-2${mathrm{m}}^{-2}$ K-1${mathrm{K}}^{-1}$),大约是耦合模式相互比较项目 16 个模式平均值(0.22 W m-2${mathrm{m}}^{-2}$ K-1${mathrm{K}}^{-1}$)的两倍。我们将这一差异与普遍存在的模式平均状态偏差联系起来:模式低估了低云对气候变暖的响应,因为(a)它们系统地低估了现今热带海洋低云的数量,以及(b)低云对气候变暖的敏感性与现今的低云数量成正比。因此,我们的研究结果凸显了减少云的平均状态及其对环境因素的敏感性方面的模式偏差对于准确预测气候变化的重要性。
Implications of a Pervasive Climate Model Bias for Low-Cloud Feedback
How low clouds respond to warming constitutes a key uncertainty for climate projections. Here we observationally constrain low-cloud feedback through a controlling factor analysis based on ridge regression. We find a moderately positive global low-cloud feedback (0.45 W , 90% range 0.18–0.72 W ), about twice the mean value (0.22 W ) of 16 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. We link this discrepancy to a pervasive model mean-state bias: models underestimate the low-cloud response to warming because (a) they systematically underestimate present-day tropical marine low-cloud amount, and (b) the low-cloud sensitivity to warming is proportional to this present-day low-cloud amount. Our results hence highlight the importance of reducing model biases in both the mean state of clouds and their sensitivity to environmental factors for accurate climate change projections.
期刊介绍:
Geophysical Research Letters (GRL) publishes high-impact, innovative, and timely research on major scientific advances in all the major geoscience disciplines. Papers are communications-length articles and should have broad and immediate implications in their discipline or across the geosciences. GRLmaintains the fastest turn-around of all high-impact publications in the geosciences and works closely with authors to ensure broad visibility of top papers.