Tracking cement transportation carbon emissions in China: Historical assessment and future simulation

China has the largest scale of cement production and consumption worldwide; likewise, its scale of cement transportation is also large. The energy consumption and carbon emissions of cement transportation cannot be ignored. This study calculates cement transportation carbon emissions from 2010 to 2020 at the national and provincial levels via the emission factor method, quantifies the contributions of various influencing factors via the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI), and further conducts scenario simulations to forecast future trends by integrating future cement consumption demand and transportation policy orientations. The research results showed that national carbon emissions from cement transportation reached a peak of 18.54 million tCO₂ in 2014 (highway transportation contributed more than 80 %), and the cement transportation carbon emissions in various provinces exhibited a spatial pattern of high in the east and low in the west. The cement transportation volume, transportation structure, transportation intensity, and carbon emission factors jointly drive the growth of cement transportation carbon emissions, whereas energy consumption intensity plays an important inhibitory role. Under low, medium and high cement consumption demand scenarios, the difference in the cumulative carbon emission reductions achievable in cement transportation from 2021 to 2050 is not significant (approximately 6 to 10 million tCO₂), while under transportation policy-oriented scenarios of transportation structure optimization and low-carbon blueprint, the variation in the cumulative carbon emission reductions achievable in future cement transportation is relatively obvious (approximately 40 to 50 million tCO₂). Therefore, compared with controlling future cement consumption demand, transportation-side policy measures such as improving the energy efficiency of transportation vehicles, optimizing the transportation structure, and enhancing the application of clean energy can achieve greater carbon reduction potential (the cumulative carbon emission reduction is approximately 90 to 140 million tCO₂). This study provides a decision-making reference for refining China's carbon peak and carbon neutrality action plans in the transportation sector.