Investigating energy-saving potential in China's central heating

Discussion of energy conservation and emission reduction has become commonplace. However, policymakers focus more on curbing industries that are heavy energy consumers and carbon emitters, little attention has been directed toward conformist industries. Central heating is one such conformist industry: essential during winter, and it has followed the central heating policy established in the 1970s. To highlight the energy savings overlooked in daily life, we evaluated the energy-saving potential of central heating from 2000 to 2019, considering climate warming and social progress. Here are the results. 1) The annual average energy saving potential ranged from 0.0128 × 10⁹ to 1.0912 × 10⁹ ton of coal equivalent when adjusted for policy, technology, fuel and demand. 2) The energy saving potential was increased by the accumulated heating degree days and the heat loss index of buildings as the climate warmed, further improved by reduced heating energy consumption per unit area in highly urbanized regions with hot summers and cold winters, and enhanced in cold regions through controlling the heating area. 3) Five scenarios, shared socioeconomic pathways126/245 + actual heating/fixed-date heating+the maximum energy-saving potential scenario, and shared socioeconomic pathway245 + actual heating+the medium energy-saving potential scenario, are preferentially selected, which align with the expectations set forth by the “total energy use control” plan by 2030. Among them, the shared socioeconomic pathway 245 + actual heating+the maximum energy-saving potential had the lowest heating energy consumption by 2030 (1.97 × 10⁹ ton of coal equivalent), which is about 0.96 times the levels observed in 2019.