Predicting potential biomass production by geospatial modelling: The case study of citrus in a Mediterranean area

Residual biomass from agricultural production and processing, such as citrus pulp and olive pomace, is an important resource for energy production. In particular, this is the case in regions where transformation industries are concentrated.

Current biomass estimates often focus on actual production data, that may not fully capture the biomass potential across all suitable cultivation areas. To bridge this gap, the study predicts the overall potential biomass available for energy production, taking into account the total area suitable for citrus cultivation.

The research is focused on the study of citrus species in the province of Syracuse, Sicily, Italy. The methodology combines Geographic Information System (GIS) tools, for data interpolation and map overlays, with Software for Assisted Habitat Modelling (SAHM) for local level simulations.

The results of the different models showed accurate and spatially coherent predictions, with AUC values ranging from 0.85 to 0.90, and highest potentialities in the northern and eastern regions of the study area. The results highlighted potential citrus cultivation on 47,706 ha and estimated 184,340 t of biomass, 16,461,520.82 Nm³ of biogas, and 8110 t of digestate. The results of the study identified potential areas for both increasing biomass production and optimising the distribution of digestate, thus demonstrating the utility of these thematic maps as a decision support tool for land management. The simulations and the methodology applied in this study indicated potential economic and environmental benefits to be gained from sustainable by-product management. This approach facilitates the optimisation of decision-making processes for land planning, thereby contributing to the broader objective of improving resource efficiency and sustainability in the agricultural production and processing sectors.