气候扰动调整--机制、影响和观测制约因素

IF 8.3 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY
AGU Advances Pub Date : 2024-10-16 DOI:10.1029/2023AV001144
Johannes Quaas, Timothy Andrews, Nicolas Bellouin, Karoline Block, Olivier Boucher, Paulo Ceppi, Guy Dagan, Sabine Doktorowski, Hannah Marie Eichholz, Piers Forster, Tom Goren, Edward Gryspeerdt, Øivind Hodnebrog, Hailing Jia, Ryan Kramer, Charlotte Lange, Amanda C. Maycock, Johannes Mülmenstädt, Gunnar Myhre, Fiona M. O’Connor, Robert Pincus, Bjørn Hallvard Samset, Fabian Senf, Keith P. Shine, Chris Smith, Camilla Weum Stjern, Toshihiko Takemura, Velle Toll, Casey J. Wall
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引用次数: 0

摘要

自政府间气候变化专门委员会第五次评估报告(AR5)发布以来,气候变化能量分析的扩展概念已被广泛采用,其中包括强迫、反馈和调整过程。调整过程被定义为对气候强迫因子的引入做出反应的过程,但与全球平均表面温度变化无关。考虑最多的是对地球能量预算产生影响的调整,这些调整加强或削弱了强迫因子产生的瞬时辐射强迫。一些调整机制也会影响与地球辐射预算无关的气候的其他方面。自第五次评估报告和 Sherwood 等人的后续描述(2015 年,https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-13-00167.1)以来,已经开展了大量有关调整的研究,在此进行回顾。我们将调整机制分为六大类,并从其潜力、缺点和实用性方面讨论了量化这些调整的方法。此外,我们还介绍了能量框架之外的调整机制,并提出了观测调整机制或利用观测结果限制其在模型中表现的新思路。总之,调整问题现在有了坚实的科学基础,可以进行更好的量化和观测约束。这将有助于更好地理解和量化气候变化。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

Adjustments to Climate Perturbations—Mechanisms, Implications, Observational Constraints

Adjustments to Climate Perturbations—Mechanisms, Implications, Observational Constraints

Since the 5th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (AR5) an extended concept of the energetic analysis of climate change including forcings, feedbacks and adjustment processes has become widely adopted. Adjustments are defined as processes that occur in response to the introduction of a climate forcing agent, but that are independent of global-mean surface temperature changes. Most considered are the adjustments that impact the Earth energy budget and strengthen or weaken the instantaneous radiative forcing due to the forcing agent. Some adjustment mechanisms also impact other aspects of climate not related to the Earth radiation budget. Since AR5 and a following description by Sherwood et al. (2015, https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-13-00167.1), much research on adjustments has been performed and is reviewed here. We classify the adjustment mechanisms into six main categories, and discuss methods of quantifying these adjustments in terms of their potentials, shortcomings and practicality. We furthermore describe aspects of adjustments that act beyond the energetic framework, and we propose new ideas to observe adjustments or to make use of observations to constrain their representation in models. Altogether, the problem of adjustments is now on a robust scientific footing, and better quantification and observational constraint is possible. This allows for improvements in understanding and quantifying climate change.

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CiteScore
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