干旱和干旱影响世界各地的国内移徙

IF 29.6 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Roman Hoffmann, Guy Abel, Maurizio Malpede, Raya Muttarak, Marco Percoco
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引用次数: 0

摘要

尽管气候变化对移民的影响受到了公众和科学界的广泛关注,但有关气候变化对全球国内移民影响的比较证据仍然很少。在此,我们利用 72 个国家的人口普查数据(1960-2016 年),分析了国家以下地区之间的 107 840 次移民流动。我们发现,干旱和旱灾的加剧对国内移民产生了重大影响,尤其是在南欧、南亚、非洲、中东和南美洲的超干旱和干旱地区。移民模式受原籍地和目的地的财富、农业依赖性和城市化程度的影响,农村和以农业为主的地区对移民的反应更为强烈。虽然气候对移民的总体影响在较富裕的国家更强,但我们观察到,在国家内部,从较贫困地区向较富裕地区的向外移民较多。此外,年龄组和教育组对气候压力的反应也不尽相同,凸显了不同地理环境下人口亚群的独特流动模式。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

Drought and aridity influence internal migration worldwide

Drought and aridity influence internal migration worldwide

Drought and aridity influence internal migration worldwide
While the effects of climatic changes on migration have received widespread public and scientific attention, comparative evidence for their influence on internal migration worldwide remains scarce. Here we use census-based data from 72 countries (1960–2016) to analyse 107,840 migration flows between subnational regions. We find that increased drought and aridity have a significant impact on internal migration, particularly in the hyper-arid and arid areas of Southern Europe, South Asia, Africa and the Middle East and South America. Migration patterns are shaped by the wealth, agricultural dependency and urbanization of both origin and destination areas with migration responses being stronger in rural and predominantly agricultural areas. While overall climatic effects on migration are stronger in richer countries, we observe higher out-migration from poorer towards wealthier regions within countries. Furthermore, age and education groups respond differently to climatic stress, highlighting distinct mobility patterns of population subgroups across different geographic contexts. Limited comparative evidence exists on the impacts of climatic factors on internal migration. Here, using a harmonized census-based dataset, the authors find that drought and aridity substantially increase internal migration, with considerable heterogeneity across regions, age groups and education levels.
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来源期刊
Nature Climate Change
Nature Climate Change ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES-METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
CiteScore
40.30
自引率
1.60%
发文量
267
审稿时长
4-8 weeks
期刊介绍: Nature Climate Change is dedicated to addressing the scientific challenge of understanding Earth's changing climate and its societal implications. As a monthly journal, it publishes significant and cutting-edge research on the nature, causes, and impacts of global climate change, as well as its implications for the economy, policy, and the world at large. The journal publishes original research spanning the natural and social sciences, synthesizing interdisciplinary research to provide a comprehensive understanding of climate change. It upholds the high standards set by all Nature-branded journals, ensuring top-tier original research through a fair and rigorous review process, broad readership access, high standards of copy editing and production, rapid publication, and independence from academic societies and other vested interests. Nature Climate Change serves as a platform for discussion among experts, publishing opinion, analysis, and review articles. It also features Research Highlights to highlight important developments in the field and original reporting from renowned science journalists in the form of feature articles. Topics covered in the journal include adaptation, atmospheric science, ecology, economics, energy, impacts and vulnerability, mitigation, oceanography, policy, sociology, and sustainability, among others.
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