一场正在酝酿中的金融灾难温度冲击、气候变化和储蓄

IF 6.9 2区 经济学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES
Trong-Anh Trinh , Russell Smyth , Sefa Awaworyi Churchill , Siew Ling Yew
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引用次数: 0

摘要

随着全球气温不断升高,人们对气候变化及其影响的研究兴趣大增。与此相关的文献主要关注天气对金融决策的影响。然而,有关气温冲击影响储蓄的渠道的证据却很少。鉴于政策制定者越来越倾向于将储蓄作为衡量财务状况的指标,这是现有文献中的一个重大缺陷。我们首次研究了天气冲击和气候变化对家庭储蓄行为的影响。我们使用了澳大利亚家庭、收入和劳动力动态调查(HILDA)的数据,并将其与测量邻里温度冲击的卫星数据合并。我们发现,日平均气温低于 10 ℃ 或高于 30 ℃ 的天数,相对于 20-25 ℃ 的天数,对净资产和储蓄有负面影响。我们发现,收入、风险偏好和时间偏好是气温冲击与储蓄之间关系的中介。为了研究气候变化的影响,我们利用气温预测来模拟全球变暖对短期、中期和长期储蓄和净资产的影响。我们发现,在本世纪余下的时间里,如果不采取应对气候变化的措施,与广泛采用可再生能源的 "最佳 "气候变化情景相比,净资产将减少 0.358 个标准差,储蓄将减少 0.034 个标准差。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
A financial disaster in the making: Temperature shocks, climate change and savings
Research on climate change and its effects has seen a surge in interest as global temperatures continue to rise. A related body of literature focuses on the impact of weather on financial decisions. However, there is very little evidence on the channels through which temperature shocks affect savings. This is a significant shortcoming in the existing literature given the growing tendency among policymakers to use savings as an indicator of financial wellbeing. We present the first study on the impact of weather shocks and climate change on household savings behaviour. We use data from the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) survey, which we merge with satellite data measuring temperature shocks at the neighbourhood level. We find that the number of days when daily average temperatures are below 10 °C or above 30 °C has a negative effect on net worth and savings, relative to the number of days in the 20-25 °C range. We find that income, risk preferences and time preferences mediate the relationship between temperature shocks and savings. To examine the impact of climate change, we use temperature projections to simulate how global warming can be expected to affect savings and net worth in the short, medium and long-term. We find that over the course of the rest of the century, if no counter measures are taken to address climate change, net worth would decrease by 0.358 standard deviations and savings by 0.034 standard deviations compared with the ‘best case’ scenario for climate change which saw the widespread adoption of renewable energy sources.
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来源期刊
Energy Research & Social Science
Energy Research & Social Science ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES-
CiteScore
14.00
自引率
16.40%
发文量
441
审稿时长
55 days
期刊介绍: Energy Research & Social Science (ERSS) is a peer-reviewed international journal that publishes original research and review articles examining the relationship between energy systems and society. ERSS covers a range of topics revolving around the intersection of energy technologies, fuels, and resources on one side and social processes and influences - including communities of energy users, people affected by energy production, social institutions, customs, traditions, behaviors, and policies - on the other. Put another way, ERSS investigates the social system surrounding energy technology and hardware. ERSS is relevant for energy practitioners, researchers interested in the social aspects of energy production or use, and policymakers. Energy Research & Social Science (ERSS) provides an interdisciplinary forum to discuss how social and technical issues related to energy production and consumption interact. Energy production, distribution, and consumption all have both technical and human components, and the latter involves the human causes and consequences of energy-related activities and processes as well as social structures that shape how people interact with energy systems. Energy analysis, therefore, needs to look beyond the dimensions of technology and economics to include these social and human elements.
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