Trong-Anh Trinh , Russell Smyth , Sefa Awaworyi Churchill , Siew Ling Yew
{"title":"一场正在酝酿中的金融灾难温度冲击、气候变化和储蓄","authors":"Trong-Anh Trinh , Russell Smyth , Sefa Awaworyi Churchill , Siew Ling Yew","doi":"10.1016/j.erss.2024.103782","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Research on climate change and its effects has seen a surge in interest as global temperatures continue to rise. A related body of literature focuses on the impact of weather on financial decisions. However, there is very little evidence on the channels through which temperature shocks affect savings. This is a significant shortcoming in the existing literature given the growing tendency among policymakers to use savings as an indicator of financial wellbeing. We present the first study on the impact of weather shocks and climate change on household savings behaviour. We use data from the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) survey, which we merge with satellite data measuring temperature shocks at the neighbourhood level. We find that the number of days when daily average temperatures are below 10 °C or above 30 °C has a negative effect on net worth and savings, relative to the number of days in the 20-25 °C range. We find that income, risk preferences and time preferences mediate the relationship between temperature shocks and savings. To examine the impact of climate change, we use temperature projections to simulate how global warming can be expected to affect savings and net worth in the short, medium and long-term. We find that over the course of the rest of the century, if no counter measures are taken to address climate change, net worth would decrease by 0.358 standard deviations and savings by 0.034 standard deviations compared with the ‘best case’ scenario for climate change which saw the widespread adoption of renewable energy sources.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48384,"journal":{"name":"Energy Research & Social Science","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":6.9000,"publicationDate":"2024-10-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"A financial disaster in the making: Temperature shocks, climate change and savings\",\"authors\":\"Trong-Anh Trinh , Russell Smyth , Sefa Awaworyi Churchill , Siew Ling Yew\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.erss.2024.103782\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><div>Research on climate change and its effects has seen a surge in interest as global temperatures continue to rise. A related body of literature focuses on the impact of weather on financial decisions. However, there is very little evidence on the channels through which temperature shocks affect savings. This is a significant shortcoming in the existing literature given the growing tendency among policymakers to use savings as an indicator of financial wellbeing. We present the first study on the impact of weather shocks and climate change on household savings behaviour. We use data from the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) survey, which we merge with satellite data measuring temperature shocks at the neighbourhood level. We find that the number of days when daily average temperatures are below 10 °C or above 30 °C has a negative effect on net worth and savings, relative to the number of days in the 20-25 °C range. We find that income, risk preferences and time preferences mediate the relationship between temperature shocks and savings. To examine the impact of climate change, we use temperature projections to simulate how global warming can be expected to affect savings and net worth in the short, medium and long-term. We find that over the course of the rest of the century, if no counter measures are taken to address climate change, net worth would decrease by 0.358 standard deviations and savings by 0.034 standard deviations compared with the ‘best case’ scenario for climate change which saw the widespread adoption of renewable energy sources.</div></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":48384,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Energy Research & Social Science\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":6.9000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-10-13\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Energy Research & Social Science\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"96\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214629624003736\",\"RegionNum\":2,\"RegionCategory\":\"经济学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Energy Research & Social Science","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214629624003736","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES","Score":null,"Total":0}
A financial disaster in the making: Temperature shocks, climate change and savings
Research on climate change and its effects has seen a surge in interest as global temperatures continue to rise. A related body of literature focuses on the impact of weather on financial decisions. However, there is very little evidence on the channels through which temperature shocks affect savings. This is a significant shortcoming in the existing literature given the growing tendency among policymakers to use savings as an indicator of financial wellbeing. We present the first study on the impact of weather shocks and climate change on household savings behaviour. We use data from the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) survey, which we merge with satellite data measuring temperature shocks at the neighbourhood level. We find that the number of days when daily average temperatures are below 10 °C or above 30 °C has a negative effect on net worth and savings, relative to the number of days in the 20-25 °C range. We find that income, risk preferences and time preferences mediate the relationship between temperature shocks and savings. To examine the impact of climate change, we use temperature projections to simulate how global warming can be expected to affect savings and net worth in the short, medium and long-term. We find that over the course of the rest of the century, if no counter measures are taken to address climate change, net worth would decrease by 0.358 standard deviations and savings by 0.034 standard deviations compared with the ‘best case’ scenario for climate change which saw the widespread adoption of renewable energy sources.
期刊介绍:
Energy Research & Social Science (ERSS) is a peer-reviewed international journal that publishes original research and review articles examining the relationship between energy systems and society. ERSS covers a range of topics revolving around the intersection of energy technologies, fuels, and resources on one side and social processes and influences - including communities of energy users, people affected by energy production, social institutions, customs, traditions, behaviors, and policies - on the other. Put another way, ERSS investigates the social system surrounding energy technology and hardware. ERSS is relevant for energy practitioners, researchers interested in the social aspects of energy production or use, and policymakers.
Energy Research & Social Science (ERSS) provides an interdisciplinary forum to discuss how social and technical issues related to energy production and consumption interact. Energy production, distribution, and consumption all have both technical and human components, and the latter involves the human causes and consequences of energy-related activities and processes as well as social structures that shape how people interact with energy systems. Energy analysis, therefore, needs to look beyond the dimensions of technology and economics to include these social and human elements.