气候变化适应规划的建模和情景构建:智利大型矿业案例

IF 4.7 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Rodrigo Jiliberto Herrera , Rodrigo Ramos-Jiliberto , Emilio Castillo Dintrans , Angel Allendes Caro , Luis Felipe Orellana Espinoza , Marco Billi , Marcelo Ramírez Valenzuela
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引用次数: 0

摘要

智利的采矿业是该国的战略工业部门。现有证据表明,它面临着几种严重的气候变化威胁:降水和洪水、干旱、热浪等。这给政府和行业带来了制定高效适应计划的压力。迄今为止,适应计划都是按照预测--然后行动或影响--再影响的线性模式设计的,正如 IPCC 第 5 次评估报告(AR5)所描述的那样。文献和 IPCC 报告指出了这些规划范式的局限性,显示了适应障碍或有利条件的相关性,这些障碍或有利条件应被视为规划问题的固有组成部分。从方法论的角度来看,气候变化风险规划意味着一个丰富的适应规划问题,以前仅以可操作的气候风险管理为特征,必须在决策过程之初对其进行描述。在本研究中,我们的目标是为智利大规模采矿业的气候变化适应规划做出贡献。本研究以气候变化适应规划方法为基础,克服了当前模式的局限性。在这一过程中,我们的出发点是:在气候风险中加入有利的管理条件,作为分析对象的是一个社会系统。这个社会系统的功能是进行社会气候风险管理。因此,我们称之为适应气候变化的社会管理系统(SMSACC)。因此,SMSACC 应成为适应规划的关键对象。首先,我们采用定性系统方法对该系统进行建模,然后将其发展为基于图论,特别是符号数字图的数学模型。这样,我们就可以对大型采矿适应性规划的扩大分析对象进行两种干预模拟。一方面,我们基于前瞻性工具进行了未来情景分析,这使我们能够了解系统对包括气候变化在内的环境未来不同行为的反应。另一方面,我们模拟了对该系统的不同战略干预方案,这有助于了解该系统在不同公共政策方法下的反应。建模和模拟结果让我们对智利大型矿业的社会适应管理困境有了深刻的理解,因此,它们是规划过程中的有用输入。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Modeling and scenario building for climate change adaptation planning: The case of large mining in Chile
The mining sector in Chile is a strategic industrial sector for the country. Existing evidence shows that it faces several serious climate change threats; precipitation and flooding, droughts, heatwaves, among others. This scene put pressure on the government and the industry to develop efficient adaptation plans. To date, adaptation plans are designed under the rather linear paradigm of predict-then-act or the impact-lea approach as they are characterized in the IPCC Assessment Report 5 (AR5). Literature and the IPCC reports have identified the limits of those planning paradigms showing the relevance of adaptation barriers or enabling conditions, which should be considered as intrinsic part of the planning problem.
In methodological terms, planning for climate change risks implies an enriched adaptation plan problem, previously characterized only by an operative climate risk management, that must be described at the beginning of the decision-making process. In this study, our objective is to contribute to the climate change adaptation planning of large-scale mining in Chile. The study is based on a climate change adaptation planning approach that overcomes the limitations of the current paradigm. In doing so, we start from the understanding that what emerges as an object of analysis from adding to the climate risks their enabling managing conditions is a social system. The social system whose function is that social climate risk management takes place. Therefore, we call it the Social Management System for Adaptation to Climate Change (SMSACC). As such the SMSACC should be the adaptation planning key object.
In the first place we modeled that system applying a qualitative system methodology and then we developed it into a mathematical model based on graph theory, in particular the signed digraphs. This allows us to simulate two types of intervention on the enlarged object of analysis of the large mining adaptation plan. On the one hand, we carried out a future scenario analysis based on prospective tools which enables us to understand the system's answer to different future behavior of its environment, including climate change. On the other hand, we simulate different strategic interventions options on the system, which facilitates understanding the system's reaction under different public policy approaches.
The modeling and simulation results provided an insightful understanding of the dilemma of social adaptation management of large mining in Chile, and as such they are useful input for the planning process.
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来源期刊
Environmental Development
Environmental Development Social Sciences-Geography, Planning and Development
CiteScore
8.40
自引率
1.90%
发文量
62
审稿时长
74 days
期刊介绍: Environmental Development provides a future oriented, pro-active, authoritative source of information and learning for researchers, postgraduate students, policymakers, and managers, and bridges the gap between fundamental research and the application in management and policy practices. It stimulates the exchange and coupling of traditional scientific knowledge on the environment, with the experiential knowledge among decision makers and other stakeholders and also connects natural sciences and social and behavioral sciences. Environmental Development includes and promotes scientific work from the non-western world, and also strengthens the collaboration between the developed and developing world. Further it links environmental research to broader issues of economic and social-cultural developments, and is intended to shorten the delays between research and publication, while ensuring thorough peer review. Environmental Development also creates a forum for transnational communication, discussion and global action. Environmental Development is open to a broad range of disciplines and authors. The journal welcomes, in particular, contributions from a younger generation of researchers, and papers expanding the frontiers of environmental sciences, pointing at new directions and innovative answers. All submissions to Environmental Development are reviewed using the general criteria of quality, originality, precision, importance of topic and insights, clarity of exposition, which are in keeping with the journal''s aims and scope.
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