Caprock sealing integrity and key indicators of CO2 geological storage considering the effect of hydraulic-mechanical coupling: X field in the Bohai Bay Basin, China

Caprock sealing efficiency is an essential guarantee for the long-term safety and stability of CO₂ geological storage (CCS). However, the uncertainty in the physical and mechanical properties of deep formations poses challenges to accurately predict the risks of CO₂ leakage resulting in CO₂ breakthrough or caprock fracture. This study aims to address the issue of imperfect key indicators for caprock sealing by focusing on the CCS project in the Bohai Bay Basin, China. A hydraulic-mechanical (HM) coupling program without considering multiphase flow and the chemical reactions is secondary developed based on the finite element software ABAQUS. Furthermore, a three-dimensional finite element numerical model is established for the analysis of HM coupling, with pore pressure increment (∆P_P), Coulomb failure stress (∆CFS) and displacement (U) as evaluation criteria. The Tornado analysis and response surface analysis are employed to analyze the impact of 17 indicators on the caprock sealing, including caprock thickness, burial depth, reservoir and caprock permeability parameters, and mechanical parameters. Subsequently, key performance indicators for caprock sealing are determined. The research results indicate that the reservoir permeability, injection rate, caprock permeability, caprock Young's modulus, caprock internal friction angle, caprock Poisson's ratio, and caprock burial depth are key indicators of caprock sealing capability. The reservoir permeability has a greater impact sensitivity compared to the caprock permeability. Pore pressure and displacement increase with increasing in reservoir permeability. The caprock's resistance to deformation and fracturing increases with increasing in Young's modulus and Poisson's ratio of caprock. This study provides valuable insights for evaluating caprock sealing during CO₂ storage in saline aquifers.