A short-term stochastic production simulation method for new energy power systems considering operation timing characteristics

Short-term stochastic production simulation is an important basis for the planning and evaluation of new energy power systems. To ensure that the simulation results meet the actual operating conditions, a short-term stochastic production simulation method for new energy power systems is proposed, which considers the operation timing characteristics. The method constructs a new energy operation model, analyzes its operation timing characteristics, and realizes the short-term stochastic production simulation of the new energy power system by considering the characteristics, the operation constraints of the new energy units and the power system operation constraints, and evaluates the reliability of the simulation results. The test results show that when the output fluctuation increased from 2% to 20%, the dynamic cost of a single new energy access increased from 34,400 yuan to 106,500 yuan, while the integration cost of integrating two new energy sources soared from 105,500 yuan to 339,100 yuan, and the cost increase was more obvious. Under the condition of high output power (such as 3500 MW), the total load loss probability of Fig. 1 is only 1.88MWh × a⁻¹, which is significantly lower than Fig. 2 (5.97MWh × a⁻¹), and the expected probability of battery power shortage and optical storage output deviation of Fig. 1 is also lower, indicating high system stability and control accuracy. The method presented in this paper has excellent performance in reducing the total system cost, and also shows the lowest value in terms of optical wind abandonment rate and optical wind abandonment rate. The optical wind abandonment rate is only 2.1% and the optical wind abandonment rate is 1.4%, and the system stability index reaches 0.92, both of which are obviously superior to the comparison method, showing strong system stability. The short-term stochastic production simulation of the new energy power system considering the operation timing characteristics is reasonable and can provide a reliable basis for the simulation, analyze the reliability of the power system planning scheme, and ensure the future planning and operation of the power system.