不确定性增加后分析师的准确性：来自艺术品市场的证据

IF 2.3 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization Pub Date : 2024-10-11 DOI:10.1016/j.jebo.2024.106761

Spencer Barnes , Brandon Mendez , Andrew Schrowang

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引用次数: 0

摘要

本研究以艺术品市场为外生环境，探讨价格不确定性的增加（即艺术家去世）如何影响分析师估算的准确性和预测误差。我们发现，在艺术家去世后的一年里，分析师的准确性降低了 14%，预测误差增加了 11%。其他分析表明，这种影响是由于估算范围的缩小、分析师预测偏差的增加以及艺术品价格波动的增加造成的。这些研究结果表明，在不确定性增加后，分析师的表现不佳，这与资产市场有关。

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Analysts’ accuracy following an increase in uncertainty: Evidence from the art market

This study utilizes the art market as an exogenous setting to explore how an increase in price uncertainty (i.e., the death of an artist) impacts the accuracy and forecast error of analysts’ estimates. We find that in the year following an artist's death, analysts’ accuracy decreases by 14% and their forecast error increases by 11%. Additional analysis indicates that the effect is due to a decrease in the estimation range, an increase in the forecast bias of analysts, and an increase in the price volatility of the artwork. These findings suggest that analysts perform poorly following an increase in uncertainty which is pertinent for asset markets.

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来源期刊

Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

3.80

自引率

9.10%

发文量

392

期刊介绍： The Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization is devoted to theoretical and empirical research concerning economic decision, organization and behavior and to economic change in all its aspects. Its specific purposes are to foster an improved understanding of how human cognitive, computational and informational characteristics influence the working of economic organizations and market economies and how an economy structural features lead to various types of micro and macro behavior, to changing patterns of development and to institutional evolution. Research with these purposes that explore the interrelations of economics with other disciplines such as biology, psychology, law, anthropology, sociology and mathematics is particularly welcome.