The role of rural circular migration in shaping weather risk management for smallholder farmers in India, Nepal, and Bangladesh

Circular migration, defined as migration where migrants return to their original home area, has become an increasingly important component of rural livelihoods and can significantly impact the risk management strategies of smallholder agricultural households in the face of climate change. To unpack the associations between climate change, migration decisions, and agricultural outcomes for smallholder agricultural households, we use an embedded mixed methods approach that uses quantitative data from a structured household survey from over 2,000 rural households in Nepal, India, and Bangladesh, along with qualitative data from interviews and focus group discussions. We use these data to identify the influence of socio-economic, climate, and weather factors on long (≥12 months) and short-term (<12 months) migration decisions and the impacts of migration on risk management strategies in agriculture. Our research shows that the drivers and effects of migration differ based on migration characteristics, including the length of time a family member migrates and whether the destination is domestic or international. We find that households with limited resources, such as constrained irrigation access, use short-term migration to cope with weather variability, whereas long-term migration is generally undertaken by wealthier households motivated to improve long-term economic outcomes. Considering the impacts of migration on risk management, we find that short-term migration of household members results in increased investment in agriculture, such as increasing inputs and adopting new varieties. In contrast, long-term and international migration is associated with disinvestments in agriculture, such as reduced cropped area and inputs. Our results highlight the importance of migration in shaping agricultural management practices amidst the challenges of climate change.