南非生物乙醇生产对整个经济的影响

IF 7.1 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS
Lungani Mvelase, Stuart Ferrer
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引用次数: 0

摘要

作为道路运输燃料中的石油替代品,生物乙醇的生产被认为是解决包括南非在内的发展中国家所面临的环境和社会经济挑战的潜在部分方案。与传统燃料相比,机动车使用的生物燃料排放的温室气体较少,而且其生产可带来经济增长和相关的社会经济成果,包括增加劳动力就业和改善家庭福利。本文旨在量化南非以甘蔗为原料生产生物乙醇的社会经济影响,并评估扩大生物乙醇工厂规模的影响。研究以 2018 年夸祖鲁-纳塔尔省和南非社会核算矩阵(SAM)为基础,考虑了两种假定情景,即仅使用出口甘蔗生产生物乙醇的情景(情景 I)和使用所有甘蔗生产生物乙醇的情景(情景 II)。根据康宁纳斯经济学家最初编制的 SAMs 修订的 SAMs 被用于开发投入产出乘数经济影响模型。利用甘蔗生产生物乙醇预计将产生积极的社会经济影响,即增加国家的国内生产总值、就业增长、资本形成总额、对财政的积极贡献、改善家庭福利以及对国际收支(BOP)的积极贡献。扩大生物乙醇工厂的规模预计会扩大影响。因此,研究建议消除生物乙醇扩张的瓶颈,包括原料成本高、投资有限、缺乏强制性混合政策等。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
The economywide impact of bioethanol production in South Africa
Bioethanol production as a substitute for petroleum in road transport fuels has been identified as a potential partial solution to environmental and socioeconomic challenges facing developing countries, including South Africa. Biofuels in motor vehicles emit fewer GHGs relative to conventional fuels, and their production can lead to economic growth and associated socioeconomic outcomes, including increased labour employment and improved household welfare. The objective of this paper was to quantify the socioeconomic impact of bioethanol production in South Africa using sugarcane as a feedstock and to assess the effects of increasing the size of the bioethanol plant. The study is based on the 2018 KwaZulu-Natal and South African Social Accounting Matrices (SAM), and two assumed scenarios are considered, namely a scenario where only export destined sugarcane is used to produce bioethanol (scenario I) and a scenario when all sugarcane is used to produce bioethanol (Scenario II). The SAMs modified from the SAMs initially compiled by Conningarth Economists were used to develop an input–output multipliers economic impact model. The production of bioethanol from sugarcane was anticipated to have positive socioeconomic impacts namely, an increase in the country’s GDP, employment growth, gross-capital formation, positive contribution to fiscus, improvement in household welfare and positive contribution to the balance of payment (BOP). Expanding the size of the bioethanol plant is expected to magnify the impacts. The study, therefore, recommends a removal of bottlenecks in bioethanol expansion, including high feedstock cost, limited investment, and absence of mandatory blending policy, amongst others.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
8.80
自引率
3.20%
发文量
180
审稿时长
58 days
期刊介绍: Energy Conversion and Management: X is the open access extension of the reputable journal Energy Conversion and Management, serving as a platform for interdisciplinary research on a wide array of critical energy subjects. The journal is dedicated to publishing original contributions and in-depth technical review articles that present groundbreaking research on topics spanning energy generation, utilization, conversion, storage, transmission, conservation, management, and sustainability. The scope of Energy Conversion and Management: X encompasses various forms of energy, including mechanical, thermal, nuclear, chemical, electromagnetic, magnetic, and electric energy. It addresses all known energy resources, highlighting both conventional sources like fossil fuels and nuclear power, as well as renewable resources such as solar, biomass, hydro, wind, geothermal, and ocean energy.
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