The impact of a low-carbon transport system policy on total factor carbon emission performance: evidence from 283 cities in China

Reducing carbon emissions from the transport sector is crucial to achieve “carbon neutrality” and is an important component of a low-carbon policy system. In response to the uncertainty of evaluating current low-carbon transport policies, we provide an in-depth analysis and examination of low-carbon transport system (LCTS) policies implemented in China. Using data from 283 Chinese cities between 2006 and 2020, we provide evidence on the policy effects, potential mechanisms, and heterogeneity of LCTS policies on carbon emission performance. Results showed that LCTS policies significantly improved carbon emission performance in pilot regions. The main ways to achieve this policy’s objective were to reduce energy consumption in pilot cities, to promote the development of green technologies, and to implement low-carbon transformation of public transport. Moreover, there was heterogeneity in the policy’s effects, with the implementation of a LCTS being more effective in eastern and central regions of China and in larger and more compact cities. By analysing the policy’s mechanisms and heterogeneity of effects, this article provides a reference for the formulation and selection of low-carbon transport policies.