{"title":"具有再感染和复发的随机广义 SIRI 流行模型的静态分布","authors":"Kai Wang , Hongjie Fan , Yanling Zhu","doi":"10.1016/j.spl.2024.110279","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In this paper, we propose and investigate the stochastic SIRI epidemic model with two generalized incidence rate functions. We firstly study the existence and uniqueness of the globally positive solution to the stochastic SIRI model with positive initial value. Then we obtain sufficient conditions for the extinction of the disease in the stochastic epidemic model, and find that the large noise can make the disease die out exponentially. Meanwhile, we obtain that the solution to the stochastic model has a unique stationary distribution when <span><math><mover><mrow><msubsup><mrow><mi>R</mi></mrow><mrow><mn>0</mn></mrow><mrow><mi>s</mi></mrow></msubsup></mrow><mrow><mo>˜</mo></mrow></mover></math></span> is greater than one. Our results show that the intensity of white noise can affect the dynamical behaviors of the model. Finally, we use numerical simulation to illustrate theoretical results, and apply both the stochastic and deterministic models to analyze the outbreak of COVID-19 epidemic in Serbia.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":49475,"journal":{"name":"Statistics & Probability Letters","volume":"216 ","pages":"Article 110279"},"PeriodicalIF":0.9000,"publicationDate":"2024-09-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Stationary distribution of a stochastic generalized SIRI epidemic model with reinfection and relapse\",\"authors\":\"Kai Wang , Hongjie Fan , Yanling Zhu\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.spl.2024.110279\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><div>In this paper, we propose and investigate the stochastic SIRI epidemic model with two generalized incidence rate functions. We firstly study the existence and uniqueness of the globally positive solution to the stochastic SIRI model with positive initial value. Then we obtain sufficient conditions for the extinction of the disease in the stochastic epidemic model, and find that the large noise can make the disease die out exponentially. Meanwhile, we obtain that the solution to the stochastic model has a unique stationary distribution when <span><math><mover><mrow><msubsup><mrow><mi>R</mi></mrow><mrow><mn>0</mn></mrow><mrow><mi>s</mi></mrow></msubsup></mrow><mrow><mo>˜</mo></mrow></mover></math></span> is greater than one. Our results show that the intensity of white noise can affect the dynamical behaviors of the model. Finally, we use numerical simulation to illustrate theoretical results, and apply both the stochastic and deterministic models to analyze the outbreak of COVID-19 epidemic in Serbia.</div></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":49475,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Statistics & Probability Letters\",\"volume\":\"216 \",\"pages\":\"Article 110279\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.9000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-09-27\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Statistics & Probability Letters\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"100\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167715224002487\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"数学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q3\",\"JCRName\":\"STATISTICS & PROBABILITY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Statistics & Probability Letters","FirstCategoryId":"100","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167715224002487","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"STATISTICS & PROBABILITY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
摘要
本文提出并研究了具有两个广义发病率函数的随机 SIRI 流行模型。我们首先研究了具有正初始值的随机 SIRI 模型全局正解的存在性和唯一性。然后,我们得到了随机流行模型中疾病消亡的充分条件,并发现大噪声会使疾病以指数形式消亡。同时,我们得到当 R0s˜ 大于 1 时,随机模型的解具有唯一的静态分布。我们的结果表明,白噪声的强度会影响模型的动力学行为。最后,我们用数值模拟来说明理论结果,并应用随机模型和确定性模型来分析塞尔维亚 COVID-19 疫情的爆发。
Stationary distribution of a stochastic generalized SIRI epidemic model with reinfection and relapse
In this paper, we propose and investigate the stochastic SIRI epidemic model with two generalized incidence rate functions. We firstly study the existence and uniqueness of the globally positive solution to the stochastic SIRI model with positive initial value. Then we obtain sufficient conditions for the extinction of the disease in the stochastic epidemic model, and find that the large noise can make the disease die out exponentially. Meanwhile, we obtain that the solution to the stochastic model has a unique stationary distribution when is greater than one. Our results show that the intensity of white noise can affect the dynamical behaviors of the model. Finally, we use numerical simulation to illustrate theoretical results, and apply both the stochastic and deterministic models to analyze the outbreak of COVID-19 epidemic in Serbia.
期刊介绍:
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