Moritz Burger , Moritz Gubler , Achim Holtmann , Stefan Brönnimann
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引用次数: 0
摘要
近年来,不同的城市气候变量模拟模型已被应用于多个城市。由于模型的输出结果通常是单独验证的,这就提出了一个问题,即针对何种特定目的选择何种城市气候模型。本研究旨在通过比较在瑞士伯尔尼市应用的四种不同城市气候模型的气温输出结果来寻找答案。其中包括一个地质统计土地利用回归模型以及 MUKLIMO_3、PALM 和 FITNAH 3D 数值模型。通过使用城市气温测量网络 70 个站点的数据,我们对这四个模型进行了比较,重点关注模型的城市气温变异性。MUKLIMO_3 的输出结果显示城市气温变化较弱,而 FITNAH 3D 则模拟了较强的小尺度温度梯度。只有 PALM 输出再现了大尺度通风模式的影响,但存在较大的正偏差。土地利用回归模型对城市气温变化的估计最为准确。对于城市气候模型的未来应用,我们更需要通过现场测量进行验证,因为输出结果(以及后续政策)在很大程度上取决于模型的选择。
Spoilt for choice - Intercomparison of four different urban climate models
In recent years, different models to simulate urban climate variables have been applied to various cities. As the model outputs are usually validated individually, this raises the question about which urban climate model to choose for what specific purpose. The present study aims to find answers to this by intercomparing air temperature outputs of four different urban climate models that have been applied in the city of Bern, Switzerland. This includes a geostatistical land use regression model and the numerical models MUKLIMO_3, PALM, and FITNAH 3D. Using data from 70 stations of an urban air temperature measurement network, we intercompare the four models by focusing on the modeled urban air temperature variability. MUKLIMO_3 outputs show a weak urban air temperature variability, while strong small-scale temperature gradients are modeled by FITNAH 3D. PALM outputs are the only ones that reproduce the impact of a large-scale ventilation pattern, but have a large positive bias. The most accurate estimates of the urban air temperature variability are obtained from the land use regression model. For future applications of urban climate models, we reinforce the need of validation with in-situ measurements, since the outputs (and subsequent policies) depend substantially on the selection of the model.
期刊介绍:
Urban Climate serves the scientific and decision making communities with the publication of research on theory, science and applications relevant to understanding urban climatic conditions and change in relation to their geography and to demographic, socioeconomic, institutional, technological and environmental dynamics and global change. Targeted towards both disciplinary and interdisciplinary audiences, this journal publishes original research papers, comprehensive review articles, book reviews, and short communications on topics including, but not limited to, the following:
Urban meteorology and climate[...]
Urban environmental pollution[...]
Adaptation to global change[...]
Urban economic and social issues[...]
Research Approaches[...]