预测未来气候变化下中国与极端降水事件相关的超额死亡人数：一项综合模型研究。

IF 24.1 1区医学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Lancet Planetary Health Pub Date : 2024-10-01 DOI:10.1016/S2542-5196(24)00202-X

Jie Ban PhD , Kailai Lu MSc , Yuanyuan Liu , Jiawei Zang MSc , Zhen Zhou MSc , Can Zhang PhD , Zhao Liu PhD , Jianbin Huang PhD , Yidan Chen PhD , Prof Xuejie Gao PhD , Prof Ying Xu PhD , Prof Can Wang PhD , Prof Wenjia Cai PhD , Prof Peng Gong PhD , Prof Yong Luo PhD , Prof Tiantian Li PhD

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引用次数: 0

摘要

背景：气候变化引发的极端降水事件已引起全球关注；然而，与之相关的超额死亡负担却未得到充分探讨，目前仍不清楚：首先，我们定义了从 1986 年到 2005 年每个县的日总降水量超过县域日降水量第 99-5 百分位数时为极端降水事件；然后，我们使用两阶段时间序列模型估计了中国 280 个县的极端降水事件与特定原因死亡之间的关联。其次，我们将三种代表性浓度路径（RCPs；RCP2-6、RCP4-5 和 RCP8-5）和三种共同社会经济路径（SSP2，"一切照旧 "情景）人口（S1，低生育率；S2，中等生育率；S3，高生育率）的不同排放-人口组合情景下的偏差校正多模型降水预测结果相结合，预测了与极端降水事件相关的超额死亡人数。我们量化了气候和人口对全国和各气候带未来超常死亡人数变化的影响：与非极端降水日相比，与极端降水日相关的死亡人数增加百分比为：意外原因 13-0%（95% CI 7-0-19-3），循环系统疾病 4-3%（2-0-6-6），呼吸系统疾病 6-8%（2-8-10-9）。1986-2005 年期间，与极端降水事件相关的年均超额死亡人数为：意外原因 2644 人（95% CI 1496-3730），循环系统疾病 69 人（33-105），呼吸系统疾病 181 人（79-279）。2030 年代，在 RCP2-6、RCP4-5 和 RCP8-5 情景下，结合中等生育率人口（SSP2-S2），这三种原因导致的超额死亡总数将分别增加 1244 例（43%）、1756 例（61%）和 2008 例（69%），但在 2090 年代，在 RCP2-6-SSP2-S2 情景下将减少 3%，在 RCP8-5-SSP2-S2 情景下将增加 25%。亚热带、中温带和高原气候区的潮湿和缺水地区面临的风险将大大增加。气候和人口因素对五个气候带的影响不成比例：这项研究是探索与极端降水事件相关的疾病负担的最大规模综合预测。气候和人口的变化将扩大超额死亡人数。在应对极端降水时，提高减缓和适应能力至关重要：国家自然科学基金委员会和惠康信托基金会。

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Projecting future excess deaths associated with extreme precipitation events in China under changing climate: an integrated modelling study

Background

Climate-change-induced extreme precipitation events have attracted global attention; however, the associated excess deaths burden has been insufficiently explored and remains unclear.

Methods

We first defined an extreme precipitation event for each county when the daily total precipitation exceeded the county-specific 99·5th percentile of the daily precipitation from 1986 to 2005; then we estimated the associations between extreme precipitation events and cause-specific deaths in 280 Chinese counties using a two-stage time-series model. Second, we projected the excess deaths related to extreme precipitation events by combining the bias-corrected multi-model precipitation predictions derived under different combined emission-population scenarios of three representative concentration pathways (RCPs; RCP2·6, RCP4·5, and RCP8·5) and three shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP2, a business-as-usual scenario) populations (S1, low fertility rate; S2, medium fertility rate; and S3, high fertility rate). We quantified the climate and population contributions to the changes of future excess deaths nationwide and by climatic zones.

Findings

Compared with the non-extreme precipitation days, the percentage increase of deaths associated with exposure to extreme precipitation days is 13·0% (95% CI 7·0–19·3) for accidental cause, 4·3% (2·0–6·6) for circulatory disease, and 6·8% (2·8–10·9) for respiratory disease. The number of annual average excess deaths related to extreme precipitation events during 1986–2005 was 2644 (95% CI 1496–3730) for accidental cause, 69 (33–105) for circulatory disease, and 181 (79–279) for respiratory disease. In the 2030s, the total number of excess deaths of these three causes will increase by 1244 (43%), 1756 (61%), and 2008 (69%) under RCP2·6, RCP4·5, and RCP8·5 scenarios combined with a medium-fertility-rate population (SSP2-S2), respectively, but will decrease by 3% under RCP2·6–SSP2-S2 and increase by 25% under RCP8·5–SSP2-S2 in the 2090s. Humid and water-limited regions in subtropical, middle-temperate, and plateau climate zones will face highly increased risks. Climate and population factors contributed disproportionally among the five climate zones.

Interpretation

This study is the largest integrated projection exploring the disease burden associated with extreme precipitation events. The excess deaths will be amplified by climate and population changes. Improving mitigation and adaptation capacities is crucial when responding to precipitation extremes.

Funding

National Natural Science Foundation of China and Wellcome Trust.

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来源期刊

Lancet Planetary Health Multiple-

CiteScore

28.40

自引率

2.30%

发文量

272

审稿时长

8 weeks

期刊介绍： The Lancet Planetary Health is a gold Open Access journal dedicated to investigating and addressing the multifaceted determinants of healthy human civilizations and their impact on natural systems. Positioned as a key player in sustainable development, the journal covers a broad, interdisciplinary scope, encompassing areas such as poverty, nutrition, gender equity, water and sanitation, energy, economic growth, industrialization, inequality, urbanization, human consumption and production, climate change, ocean health, land use, peace, and justice. With a commitment to publishing high-quality research, comment, and correspondence, it aims to be the leading journal for sustainable development in the face of unprecedented dangers and threats.