评估生育和退休政策对中国碳排放的影响

IF 29.6 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Ling Tang, Junai Yang, Jiali Zheng, Xinlu Sun, Lu Cheng, Kehan He, Ling Li, Jinkai Li, Wenjia Cai, Shouyang Wang, Paul Drummond, Zhifu Mi
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引用次数: 0

摘要

中国逐步调整生育和退休政策在应对人口老龄化方面具有社会效益。然而,这些政策对环境的影响仍不明确。在此,我们编制了环境扩展的多区域投入产出表,以估算中国不同人口年龄组的家庭碳足迹。随后,我们估算了 2060 年前不同生育政策下的不同年龄性别人口,并评估了生育和退休政策对家庭碳足迹的影响。我们发现,由于各年龄段收入的差异,中国年轻人的家庭碳足迹相对高于老年人。放宽生育政策和延迟退休年龄会导致人口(和劳动力供给)增加,从而增加家庭碳足迹,其中大部分增加来自生育方面。这些结果可能有助于决策者了解针对人口老龄化和气候行动的措施之间的相互作用。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

Assessing the impacts of fertility and retirement policies on China’s carbon emissions

Assessing the impacts of fertility and retirement policies on China’s carbon emissions

Assessing the impacts of fertility and retirement policies on China’s carbon emissions
The gradual adjustment of fertility and retirement policies in China has social benefits in terms of coping with population aging. However, the environmental consequences of these policies remain ambiguous. Here we compile environmentally extended multiregional input–output tables to estimate household carbon footprints for different population age groups in China. Subsequently, we estimate the age-sex-specific population under different fertility policies up to 2060 and assess the impacts of fertility and retirement policies on household carbon footprints. We find that Chinese young people have relatively higher household carbon footprints than their older counterparts due to differences in income by age group. Relaxing fertility policies and delaying retirement age are associated with an increase in population (and labour supply) and thus increases in household carbon footprints, with the majority of these increases from the fertility side. These results may help policymakers understand interactions among those measures targeting population aging and climate action. Demographic policies to address population aging could have major climate consequences, and such interaction effect is context dependent. This study shows that relaxing the fertility policy and delaying retirement age in China could lead to an increase in total and per capita household carbon footprint.
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来源期刊
Nature Climate Change
Nature Climate Change ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES-METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
CiteScore
40.30
自引率
1.60%
发文量
267
审稿时长
4-8 weeks
期刊介绍: Nature Climate Change is dedicated to addressing the scientific challenge of understanding Earth's changing climate and its societal implications. As a monthly journal, it publishes significant and cutting-edge research on the nature, causes, and impacts of global climate change, as well as its implications for the economy, policy, and the world at large. The journal publishes original research spanning the natural and social sciences, synthesizing interdisciplinary research to provide a comprehensive understanding of climate change. It upholds the high standards set by all Nature-branded journals, ensuring top-tier original research through a fair and rigorous review process, broad readership access, high standards of copy editing and production, rapid publication, and independence from academic societies and other vested interests. Nature Climate Change serves as a platform for discussion among experts, publishing opinion, analysis, and review articles. It also features Research Highlights to highlight important developments in the field and original reporting from renowned science journalists in the form of feature articles. Topics covered in the journal include adaptation, atmospheric science, ecology, economics, energy, impacts and vulnerability, mitigation, oceanography, policy, sociology, and sustainability, among others.
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