Complex Emotion Dynamics Contribute to the Prediction of Depression: A Machine Learning and Time Series Feature Extraction Approach

Emotion dynamics have demonstrated mixed ability to predict depressive symptoms and outperform traditional metrics like the mean and standard deviation of emotion reports. Here, we expand the types of emotion dynamic features used in prior work and apply a machine learning algorithm to predict depression symptoms. We obtained seven ecological momentary assessment (EMA) studies from previous work on depression and emotion dynamics (N = 890). These studies measured self-reported sadness, positive affect, and negative affect 5 to 10 times per day for 7 to 21 days (schedule varied across studies). These data were fed through a feature extraction routine to generate hundreds of emotion dynamic features. A gradient boosting machine (GBM) using all available emotion dynamics features was the best of all models assessed. This model’s out-of-sample prediction (R²_pred) for depression severity ranged from .20 to .44 depending on EMA interpolation method and samples included in the analysis. It also explained significantly more variance than a benchmark model of individuals’ mean emotion ratings over the assessment period, R²_pred = .089. Comprehensive feature mining of emotion dynamics obtained during EMA may be necessary to identify processes that predict depression symptoms beyond mean emotion ratings.