Kevin L Nunes, Cassidy E Hatton, Anna T Pham, Carolyn Blank, Sacha Maimone
{"title":"对暴力相关证据的因果解读。","authors":"Kevin L Nunes, Cassidy E Hatton, Anna T Pham, Carolyn Blank, Sacha Maimone","doi":"10.1177/08862605241285996","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Inferring causation from correlation can lead to erroneous explanations of violent behavior and the development and implementation of ineffective or even harmful interventions and policies. This article explores the inferences that violence researchers draw from evidence related to violent offending. We invited authors of articles published in violence journals to complete an online survey in which they were asked to identify a factor that may be a cause of violence, cite a study that demonstrates the factor is associated with violence, and provide their inferences from that study. We read each study and coded its research design (description of a sample [<i>n</i> = 9], cross-sectional/retrospective non-experiment [<i>n</i> = 18], single-wave longitudinal non-experiment [<i>n</i> = 10], multi-wave longitudinal non-experiment [<i>n</i> = 0], or randomized experiment [<i>n</i> = 5]) and the appropriate inferences (inter-rater reliability was adequate; κ = 0.73-1.00). Reassuringly, participants (<i>N</i> = 42; 57.1% in United States; 59.5% women) rarely indicated that their identified study demonstrated that their factor was a cause of violence (0.0%-16.7%) when the study was not a randomized experiment. However, many participants failed to acknowledge any plausible alternate interpretations (e.g., reverse causality, third variable) of the results from non-experimental studies (50.0%-88.9%). Moreover, most participants incorrectly selected a causal implication as following from the results of non-experimental studies (77.8%-100%). Our results suggest that even among authors of articles published in peer-review scientific journals on violence, many appear to infer causation from correlation.</p>","PeriodicalId":16289,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Interpersonal Violence","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.6000,"publicationDate":"2024-10-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Causal Interpretations of Correlational Evidence Regarding Violence.\",\"authors\":\"Kevin L Nunes, Cassidy E Hatton, Anna T Pham, Carolyn Blank, Sacha Maimone\",\"doi\":\"10.1177/08862605241285996\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><p>Inferring causation from correlation can lead to erroneous explanations of violent behavior and the development and implementation of ineffective or even harmful interventions and policies. This article explores the inferences that violence researchers draw from evidence related to violent offending. We invited authors of articles published in violence journals to complete an online survey in which they were asked to identify a factor that may be a cause of violence, cite a study that demonstrates the factor is associated with violence, and provide their inferences from that study. We read each study and coded its research design (description of a sample [<i>n</i> = 9], cross-sectional/retrospective non-experiment [<i>n</i> = 18], single-wave longitudinal non-experiment [<i>n</i> = 10], multi-wave longitudinal non-experiment [<i>n</i> = 0], or randomized experiment [<i>n</i> = 5]) and the appropriate inferences (inter-rater reliability was adequate; κ = 0.73-1.00). Reassuringly, participants (<i>N</i> = 42; 57.1% in United States; 59.5% women) rarely indicated that their identified study demonstrated that their factor was a cause of violence (0.0%-16.7%) when the study was not a randomized experiment. However, many participants failed to acknowledge any plausible alternate interpretations (e.g., reverse causality, third variable) of the results from non-experimental studies (50.0%-88.9%). Moreover, most participants incorrectly selected a causal implication as following from the results of non-experimental studies (77.8%-100%). Our results suggest that even among authors of articles published in peer-review scientific journals on violence, many appear to infer causation from correlation.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":16289,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Journal of Interpersonal Violence\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":2.6000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-10-10\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Journal of Interpersonal Violence\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"102\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1177/08862605241285996\",\"RegionNum\":3,\"RegionCategory\":\"心理学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Interpersonal Violence","FirstCategoryId":"102","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1177/08862605241285996","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"心理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}
Causal Interpretations of Correlational Evidence Regarding Violence.
Inferring causation from correlation can lead to erroneous explanations of violent behavior and the development and implementation of ineffective or even harmful interventions and policies. This article explores the inferences that violence researchers draw from evidence related to violent offending. We invited authors of articles published in violence journals to complete an online survey in which they were asked to identify a factor that may be a cause of violence, cite a study that demonstrates the factor is associated with violence, and provide their inferences from that study. We read each study and coded its research design (description of a sample [n = 9], cross-sectional/retrospective non-experiment [n = 18], single-wave longitudinal non-experiment [n = 10], multi-wave longitudinal non-experiment [n = 0], or randomized experiment [n = 5]) and the appropriate inferences (inter-rater reliability was adequate; κ = 0.73-1.00). Reassuringly, participants (N = 42; 57.1% in United States; 59.5% women) rarely indicated that their identified study demonstrated that their factor was a cause of violence (0.0%-16.7%) when the study was not a randomized experiment. However, many participants failed to acknowledge any plausible alternate interpretations (e.g., reverse causality, third variable) of the results from non-experimental studies (50.0%-88.9%). Moreover, most participants incorrectly selected a causal implication as following from the results of non-experimental studies (77.8%-100%). Our results suggest that even among authors of articles published in peer-review scientific journals on violence, many appear to infer causation from correlation.
期刊介绍:
The Journal of Interpersonal Violence is devoted to the study and treatment of victims and perpetrators of interpersonal violence. It provides a forum of discussion of the concerns and activities of professionals and researchers working in domestic violence, child sexual abuse, rape and sexual assault, physical child abuse, and violent crime. With its dual focus on victims and victimizers, the journal will publish material that addresses the causes, effects, treatment, and prevention of all types of violence. JIV only publishes reports on individual studies in which the scientific method is applied to the study of some aspect of interpersonal violence. Research may use qualitative or quantitative methods. JIV does not publish reviews of research, individual case studies, or the conceptual analysis of some aspect of interpersonal violence. Outcome data for program or intervention evaluations must include a comparison or control group.