Predictive models of post-traumatic stress disorder, complex post-traumatic stress disorder, depression, and anxiety in children and adolescents following a single-event trauma.

Background: This study examined the power of theory-derived models to account for the development of PTSD, Complex PTSD (CPTSD), depression, and anxiety in children and adolescents who had experienced a single-event trauma.

Methods: Children (n = 234, aged 8-17 years) recruited from local Emergency Departments were assessed at two and nine weeks post-trauma. Data obtained from self-report questionnaires completed by the child, telephone interviews with parents, and hospital data were used to develop four predictive models of risk factors for PTSD, CPTSD, depression, and Generalized Anxiety Disorder (GAD). ICD-11 proposed diagnostic criteria were used to generate measures for CPTSD and PTSD to assess for risk factors and identify the sample prevalence of these disorders.

Results: At nine weeks post-trauma, 64% did not meet criteria for any disorder, 23.5% met criteria for PTSD, and 5.2% met criteria for CPTSD. 23.9% and 10.7% had developed clinically significant symptoms of depression and GAD, respectively. A cognitive model was the most powerful predictive model, a psychosocial model was weak, and subjective markers of event severity were more powerful than objective measures.

Conclusions: Youth exposed to single-incident trauma may develop different forms of psychopathology, and PTSD and CPTSD are frequently experienced alongside other conditions. The cognitive model of PTSD shows utility in identifying predictors of PTSD, CPTSD, depression, and GAD, particularly the role of trauma-related negative appraisals. This supports the application of cognitive interventions which focus upon re-appraising trauma-related beliefs in youth.