Predictors of change in CD4 cell count over time for HIV/AIDS patients on ART follow-up in northern Ethiopia: a retrospective longitudinal study.

Background: HIV has an effect on lowering CD4 cell count, which lowers the ability to resist contamination. For patients on ART in areas with limited resources, the CD4 cell count assessment is crucial for determining treatment responses and therapeutic decisions. The volatility of CD4 counts following the introduction of ART over time is still largely uncharacterized, and there are few fresh datasets on CD4 cell count progressions. The goal of this study was to identify the key factors that change over time in CD4 cells for HIV/AIDS patients receiving ART follow-up in northern Ethiopia.

Methods: A total of 216 HIV/AIDS patients who initiated ART in the Mekelle General Hospital between 2013 and 2016 were involved using systematic random selection techniques. An examination of exploratory data was used to describe the individual profiles of HIV patients. A multivariable random intercept and slope linear mixed regression analysis regarded predictor variables to be statistically significant if their p-value was less than 0.05.

Results: The random intercept and slope linear mixed model result indicated that there were statistically significant predictors of baseline CD4 cell count (β = 0.0125, P-value = 0.001*) and bedridden functional status (β = -2.459, p = 0.02*) on the change of CD4 cell count over time in HIV/AIDS patients at the 5% significance level.

Conclusions: Changes in CD4 counts were influenced by the baseline CD4 cell count and the functional status of being bedridden. Because their CD4 cell counts were lower at baseline and they had a functional status of bedridden, the majority of HIV/AIDS patients on ART had substantial predictors on the change of CD4 cell count over time. So, public health service providers should give exceptional guidance and attention is also necessary for those patients who have lower baseline CD4 cell count and bedridden functional status.