Analysis and prediction of ablation zone absorption in papillary thyroid microcarcinoma undergoing microwave ablation.

Purpose: This study aims to investigate the factors that influence the absorption of the ablation zone in patients with papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC) following microwave ablation (MWA) and construct a nomogram for predicting the absorption of the ablation zone.

Methods: Data from 150 patients with 187 PTMCs who received MWA between April 2020 and April 2023 were analyzed. PTMCs were randomly divided into training and validation sets in a 7:3 ratio. Univariable and multivariable analyses of Cox regression were utilized to identify the independent variables associated with the absorption of the ablation zone in PTMC post-MWA, and a nomogram was established. The discrimination and calibration performance of the nomogram was assessed using the time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curves and calibration curves.

Results: At 12 months post-MWA, a 53% proportion of complete disappearance of the ablation zone was observed. Energy delivered per milliliter of volume measured in contrast-enhanced ultrasound (CEUS) mode immediately post-MWA (Edv) and the CEUS margin at 1-month post-WMA were identified as independently correlated with the ablation zone absorption post-MWA (P = 0.001, P < 0.001 respectively). A nomogram incorporating these two factors was constructed. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve were all above 0.78 in the training and validation sets.

Conclusion: Edv and the CEUS margin at 1-month post-MWA were found to be significantly associated with complete absorption of the ablation zone in PTMC patients following MWA. The established nomogram can assist practitioners in formulating more appropriate ablation strategies and provide a clinical basis for explaining the recovery status to patients.