{"title":"中国广东省 COVID-19 动态演变：流行病模型研究。","authors":"Zitong Huang, Liling Lin, Xing Li, Zuhua Rong, Jianxiong Hu, Jianguo Zhao, Weilin Zeng, Zhihua Zhu, Yihong Li, Yun Huang, Li Zhang, Dexin Gong, Jiaqing Xu, Yan Li, Huibing Lai, Wangjian Zhang, Yuantao Hao, Jianpeng Xiao, Lifeng Lin","doi":"10.1186/s13690-024-01406-1","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>From January 2020 to June 2022, strict interventions against COVID-19 were implemented in Guangdong Province, China. However, the evolution of COVID-19 dynamics remained unclear in this period.</p><p><strong>Objectives: </strong>This study aims to investigate the evolution of within- and between-city COVID-19 dynamics in Guangdong, specifically during the implementation of rigorous prevention and control measures. The intent is to glean valuable lessons that can be applied to refine and optimize targeted interventions for future crises.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Data of COVID-19 cases and synchronous interventions from January 2020 to June 2022 in Guangdong Province were collected. The epidemiological characteristics were described, and the effective reproduction number (R<sub>t</sub>) was estimated using a sequential Bayesian method. Endemic-epidemic multivariate time-series model was employed to quantitatively analyze the spatiotemporal component values and variations, to identify the evolution of within- and between-city COVID-19 dynamics.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>The incidence of COVID-19 in Guangdong Province was 12.6/100,000 population (15,989 cases) from January 2020 to June 2022. The R<sub>t</sub> predominantly remained below 1 and increased to a peak of 1.39 in Stage 5. As for the evolution of variations during the study period, there were more spatiotemporal components in stage 1 and 5. All components were fewer from Stage 2 to Stage 4. Results from the endemic-epidemic multivariate time-series model revealed a strong follow-up impact from previous infections in Dongguan, Guangzhou and Zhanjiang, with autoregressive components of 0.48, 0.45 and 0.36, respectively. Local risk was relatively high in Yunfu, Shanwei and Shenzhen, with endemic components of 1.17, 1.04 and 0.71, respectively. The impact of the epidemic on the neighboring regions was significant in Zhanjiang, Shenzhen and Zhuhai, with epidemic components of 2.14, 1.92, and 1.89, respectively.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>The findings indicate the presence of spatiotemporal variation of COVID-19 in Guangdong Province, even with the implementation of strict interventions. It's significant to prevent transmissions within cities with dense population. Preventing spatial transmissions between cities is necessary when the epidemic is severe. To better cope with future crises, interventions including vaccination, medical resource allocation and coordinated non-pharmaceutical interventions were suggested.</p>","PeriodicalId":48578,"journal":{"name":"Archives of Public Health","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.2000,"publicationDate":"2024-10-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Evolution of COVID-19 dynamics in Guangdong Province, China: an endemic-epidemic modeling study.\",\"authors\":\"Zitong Huang, Liling Lin, Xing Li, Zuhua Rong, Jianxiong Hu, Jianguo Zhao, Weilin Zeng, Zhihua Zhu, Yihong Li, Yun Huang, Li Zhang, Dexin Gong, Jiaqing Xu, Yan Li, Huibing Lai, Wangjian Zhang, Yuantao Hao, Jianpeng Xiao, Lifeng Lin\",\"doi\":\"10.1186/s13690-024-01406-1\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><strong>Background: </strong>From January 2020 to June 2022, strict interventions against COVID-19 were implemented in Guangdong Province, China. However, the evolution of COVID-19 dynamics remained unclear in this period.</p><p><strong>Objectives: </strong>This study aims to investigate the evolution of within- and between-city COVID-19 dynamics in Guangdong, specifically during the implementation of rigorous prevention and control measures. The intent is to glean valuable lessons that can be applied to refine and optimize targeted interventions for future crises.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Data of COVID-19 cases and synchronous interventions from January 2020 to June 2022 in Guangdong Province were collected. The epidemiological characteristics were described, and the effective reproduction number (R<sub>t</sub>) was estimated using a sequential Bayesian method. Endemic-epidemic multivariate time-series model was employed to quantitatively analyze the spatiotemporal component values and variations, to identify the evolution of within- and between-city COVID-19 dynamics.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>The incidence of COVID-19 in Guangdong Province was 12.6/100,000 population (15,989 cases) from January 2020 to June 2022. The R<sub>t</sub> predominantly remained below 1 and increased to a peak of 1.39 in Stage 5. As for the evolution of variations during the study period, there were more spatiotemporal components in stage 1 and 5. All components were fewer from Stage 2 to Stage 4. Results from the endemic-epidemic multivariate time-series model revealed a strong follow-up impact from previous infections in Dongguan, Guangzhou and Zhanjiang, with autoregressive components of 0.48, 0.45 and 0.36, respectively. Local risk was relatively high in Yunfu, Shanwei and Shenzhen, with endemic components of 1.17, 1.04 and 0.71, respectively. The impact of the epidemic on the neighboring regions was significant in Zhanjiang, Shenzhen and Zhuhai, with epidemic components of 2.14, 1.92, and 1.89, respectively.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>The findings indicate the presence of spatiotemporal variation of COVID-19 in Guangdong Province, even with the implementation of strict interventions. It's significant to prevent transmissions within cities with dense population. Preventing spatial transmissions between cities is necessary when the epidemic is severe. To better cope with future crises, interventions including vaccination, medical resource allocation and coordinated non-pharmaceutical interventions were suggested.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":48578,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Archives of Public Health\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":3.2000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-10-02\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Archives of Public Health\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"3\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1186/s13690-024-01406-1\",\"RegionNum\":3,\"RegionCategory\":\"医学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Archives of Public Health","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s13690-024-01406-1","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH","Score":null,"Total":0}
Evolution of COVID-19 dynamics in Guangdong Province, China: an endemic-epidemic modeling study.
Background: From January 2020 to June 2022, strict interventions against COVID-19 were implemented in Guangdong Province, China. However, the evolution of COVID-19 dynamics remained unclear in this period.
Objectives: This study aims to investigate the evolution of within- and between-city COVID-19 dynamics in Guangdong, specifically during the implementation of rigorous prevention and control measures. The intent is to glean valuable lessons that can be applied to refine and optimize targeted interventions for future crises.
Methods: Data of COVID-19 cases and synchronous interventions from January 2020 to June 2022 in Guangdong Province were collected. The epidemiological characteristics were described, and the effective reproduction number (Rt) was estimated using a sequential Bayesian method. Endemic-epidemic multivariate time-series model was employed to quantitatively analyze the spatiotemporal component values and variations, to identify the evolution of within- and between-city COVID-19 dynamics.
Results: The incidence of COVID-19 in Guangdong Province was 12.6/100,000 population (15,989 cases) from January 2020 to June 2022. The Rt predominantly remained below 1 and increased to a peak of 1.39 in Stage 5. As for the evolution of variations during the study period, there were more spatiotemporal components in stage 1 and 5. All components were fewer from Stage 2 to Stage 4. Results from the endemic-epidemic multivariate time-series model revealed a strong follow-up impact from previous infections in Dongguan, Guangzhou and Zhanjiang, with autoregressive components of 0.48, 0.45 and 0.36, respectively. Local risk was relatively high in Yunfu, Shanwei and Shenzhen, with endemic components of 1.17, 1.04 and 0.71, respectively. The impact of the epidemic on the neighboring regions was significant in Zhanjiang, Shenzhen and Zhuhai, with epidemic components of 2.14, 1.92, and 1.89, respectively.
Conclusion: The findings indicate the presence of spatiotemporal variation of COVID-19 in Guangdong Province, even with the implementation of strict interventions. It's significant to prevent transmissions within cities with dense population. Preventing spatial transmissions between cities is necessary when the epidemic is severe. To better cope with future crises, interventions including vaccination, medical resource allocation and coordinated non-pharmaceutical interventions were suggested.
期刊介绍：
rchives of Public Health is a broad scope public health journal, dedicated to publishing all sound science in the field of public health. The journal aims to better the understanding of the health of populations. The journal contributes to public health knowledge, enhances the interaction between research, policy and practice and stimulates public health monitoring and indicator development. The journal considers submissions on health outcomes and their determinants, with clear statements about the public health and policy implications. Archives of Public Health welcomes methodological papers (e.g., on study design and bias), papers on health services research, health economics, community interventions, and epidemiological studies dealing with international comparisons, the determinants of inequality in health, and the environmental, behavioural, social, demographic and occupational correlates of health and diseases.
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