{"title":"有界风险处置解释了空间传染过程中的图灵模式和临界点。","authors":"C M Jamerlan, M Prokopenko","doi":"10.1098/rsos.240457","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Spatial contagions, such as pandemics, opinion polarization, infodemics and civil unrest, exhibit non-trivial spatio-temporal patterns and dynamics driven by complex human behaviours and population mobility. Here, we propose a concise generic framework to model different contagion types within a suitably defined contagion vulnerability space. This space comprises risk disposition, considered in terms of bounded risk aversion and adaptive responsiveness and a generalized susceptibility acquisition. We show that resultant geospatial contagion configurations follow intricate Turing patterns observed in reaction-diffusion systems. Pattern formation is shown to be highly sensitive to changes in underlying vulnerability parameters. The identified critical regimes (tipping points) imply that slight changes in susceptibility acquisition and perceived local risks can significantly alter the population flow and resultant contagion patterns. We examine several case studies using Australian datasets (COVID-19 pandemic; crime incidence; conflict exposure during COVID-19 protests; real estate businesses and residential building approvals) and demonstrate that these spatial contagions generated Turing patterns in accordance with the proposed model.</p>","PeriodicalId":21525,"journal":{"name":"Royal Society Open Science","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.9000,"publicationDate":"2024-10-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11444781/pdf/","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Bounded risk disposition explains Turing patterns and tipping points during spatial contagions.\",\"authors\":\"C M Jamerlan, M Prokopenko\",\"doi\":\"10.1098/rsos.240457\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><p>Spatial contagions, such as pandemics, opinion polarization, infodemics and civil unrest, exhibit non-trivial spatio-temporal patterns and dynamics driven by complex human behaviours and population mobility. Here, we propose a concise generic framework to model different contagion types within a suitably defined contagion vulnerability space. This space comprises risk disposition, considered in terms of bounded risk aversion and adaptive responsiveness and a generalized susceptibility acquisition. We show that resultant geospatial contagion configurations follow intricate Turing patterns observed in reaction-diffusion systems. Pattern formation is shown to be highly sensitive to changes in underlying vulnerability parameters. The identified critical regimes (tipping points) imply that slight changes in susceptibility acquisition and perceived local risks can significantly alter the population flow and resultant contagion patterns. We examine several case studies using Australian datasets (COVID-19 pandemic; crime incidence; conflict exposure during COVID-19 protests; real estate businesses and residential building approvals) and demonstrate that these spatial contagions generated Turing patterns in accordance with the proposed model.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":21525,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Royal Society Open Science\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":2.9000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-10-02\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11444781/pdf/\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Royal Society Open Science\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"103\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.240457\",\"RegionNum\":3,\"RegionCategory\":\"综合性期刊\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"2024/10/1 0:00:00\",\"PubModel\":\"eCollection\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Royal Society Open Science","FirstCategoryId":"103","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.240457","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"综合性期刊","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"2024/10/1 0:00:00","PubModel":"eCollection","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES","Score":null,"Total":0}
Bounded risk disposition explains Turing patterns and tipping points during spatial contagions.
Spatial contagions, such as pandemics, opinion polarization, infodemics and civil unrest, exhibit non-trivial spatio-temporal patterns and dynamics driven by complex human behaviours and population mobility. Here, we propose a concise generic framework to model different contagion types within a suitably defined contagion vulnerability space. This space comprises risk disposition, considered in terms of bounded risk aversion and adaptive responsiveness and a generalized susceptibility acquisition. We show that resultant geospatial contagion configurations follow intricate Turing patterns observed in reaction-diffusion systems. Pattern formation is shown to be highly sensitive to changes in underlying vulnerability parameters. The identified critical regimes (tipping points) imply that slight changes in susceptibility acquisition and perceived local risks can significantly alter the population flow and resultant contagion patterns. We examine several case studies using Australian datasets (COVID-19 pandemic; crime incidence; conflict exposure during COVID-19 protests; real estate businesses and residential building approvals) and demonstrate that these spatial contagions generated Turing patterns in accordance with the proposed model.
期刊介绍:
Royal Society Open Science is a new open journal publishing high-quality original research across the entire range of science on the basis of objective peer-review.
The journal covers the entire range of science and mathematics and will allow the Society to publish all the high-quality work it receives without the usual restrictions on scope, length or impact.