Exploring the Coupling Relationship and Driving Factors of Land Use Conflicts and Ecosystem Services Supply–Demand Balances in Different Main Functional Areas, Southwest China

Conflicts between different types of land use, driven by rapid urbanization, are altering ecosystem services supply–demand balances (ESDB), and the reduction of ESDB will threaten regional sustainable development and human welfare. However, there are few studies on the interrelationships and their drivers between land use conflicts (LUCs) and ESDB from a coupling perspective, especially in different main functional areas. Therefore, this study focused on Southwest China. Firstly, the coupling coordination degree model was employed to measure the ESDB-LUCs relationship and analyze its dynamic changes from 1990 to 2020. Then, the RDA method was used to explore the driving factors of the ESDB-LUCs relationship in different functional areas (i.e., urban development area (UDA), agricultural development area (APA), and ecological protection area (EPA)). The results show that the LUCs index displayed a downward trend in the SW during 1990–2020, with a decreasing distribution pattern from the northeast to the southwest. The ESDB index exhibited a downward and then upward trend, with an increasing distribution mode from the northeast to the southwest. There was a spatial dependence between LUCs and ESDB. The type of coupling coordination between LUCs and ESDB was dominated by moderate coordination, with the index showing a spatial pattern of UDA > APA > EPA. Among these, the proportion of cropland and the proportion of urban land were the main factors influencing the degree of coordination of the UDA (explanation rate > 80%), showing positive and negative effects, respectively. The proportion of forestland and the proportion of cropland were the main factors influencing the APA and EPA (explanation rate > 70%), with negative and positive effects, respectively. Therefore, mitigating the conflict between cropland and urban land, cropland and forest land is essential to achieve ecosystem balance in the SW.