在一项长期实验研究中,生态预测模型对新生物条件的可移植性。

IF 4.4 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ECOLOGY
Ecology Pub Date : 2024-10-01 DOI:10.1002/ecy.4406
Patricia Kaye T. Dumandan, Juniper L. Simonis, Glenda M. Yenni, S. K. Morgan Ernest, Ethan P. White
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引用次数: 0

摘要

生态预测模型在管理自然资源和评估我们对驱动生态动态过程的基本知识方面发挥着越来越重要的作用。随着全球环境变化推动生态系统超越其历史条件,这些模型的实用性可能取决于它们在新条件下的可移植性。由于物种间的相互作用会改变资源的利用、繁殖的时间以及物种实现的生态位的其他方面,因此生物条件的变化(可能是由于环境变化引起的群落重组事件)有可能影响模型的可移植性。通过对沙漠啮齿动物的长期实验,我们评估了模型在新的生物条件下的可转移性,以更好地理解生态预测的局限性。我们发现,当生成生态预测的模型被转移到新的生物条件下时,生态预测的准确性可能会降低,而且模型可转移性的程度可能取决于预测的物种。我们还证明了将不确定性纳入预测评估的重要性,转移后的模型产生的预测准确性更低,不确定性更高。这些结果表明,一个物种如何看待其竞争格局会影响模型的可转移性,当不确定性得到适当考虑时,转移模型可能仍然适合于决策制定。评估预测模型的可转移性程度是提高我们对生态预测局限性认识的关键一步。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Transferability of ecological forecasting models to novel biotic conditions in a long-term experimental study

Ecological forecasting models play an increasingly important role for managing natural resources and assessing our fundamental knowledge of processes driving ecological dynamics. As global environmental change pushes ecosystems beyond their historical conditions, the utility of these models may depend on their transferability to novel conditions. Because species interactions can alter resource use, timing of reproduction, and other aspects of a species' realized niche, changes in biotic conditions, which can arise from community reorganization events in response to environmental change, have the potential to impact model transferability. Using a long-term experiment on desert rodents, we assessed model transferability under novel biotic conditions to better understand the limitations of ecological forecasting. We show that ecological forecasts can be less accurate when the models generating them are transferred to novel biotic conditions and that the extent of model transferability can depend on the species being forecast. We also demonstrate the importance of incorporating uncertainty into forecast evaluation with transferred models generating less accurate and more uncertain forecasts. These results suggest that how a species perceives its competitive landscape can influence model transferability and that when uncertainties are properly accounted for, transferred models may still be appropriate for decision making. Assessing the extent of the transferability of forecasting models is a crucial step to increase our understanding of the limitations of ecological forecasts.

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来源期刊
Ecology
Ecology 环境科学-生态学
CiteScore
8.30
自引率
2.10%
发文量
332
审稿时长
3 months
期刊介绍: Ecology publishes articles that report on the basic elements of ecological research. Emphasis is placed on concise, clear articles documenting important ecological phenomena. The journal publishes a broad array of research that includes a rapidly expanding envelope of subject matter, techniques, approaches, and concepts: paleoecology through present-day phenomena; evolutionary, population, physiological, community, and ecosystem ecology, as well as biogeochemistry; inclusive of descriptive, comparative, experimental, mathematical, statistical, and interdisciplinary approaches.
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