英格兰 COVID-19 传播的风险因素:利用常规接触追踪数据进行的多层次建模研究。

IF 2.5 4区 医学 Q3 INFECTIOUS DISEASES
Hannah L Moore, Charlie Turner, Chris Rawlinson, Cong Chen, Neville Q Verlander, Charlotte Anderson, Gareth J Hughes
{"title":"英格兰 COVID-19 传播的风险因素:利用常规接触追踪数据进行的多层次建模研究。","authors":"Hannah L Moore, Charlie Turner, Chris Rawlinson, Cong Chen, Neville Q Verlander, Charlotte Anderson, Gareth J Hughes","doi":"10.1017/S0950268824001043","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Contact tracing for COVID-19 in England operated from May 2020 to February 2022. The clinical, demographic and exposure information collected on cases and their contacts offered a unique opportunity to study secondary transmission. We aimed to quantify the relative impact of host factors and exposure settings on secondary COVID-19 transmission risk using 550,000 sampled transmission links between cases and their contacts. Links, or 'contact episodes', were established where a contact subsequently became a case, using an algorithm accounting for incubation period, setting, and contact date. A mixed-effects logistic regression model was used to estimate adjusted odds of transmission. Of sampled episodes, 8.7% resulted in secondary cases. Living with a case (71% episodes) was the most significant risk factor (aOR = 2.6, CI = 1.9-3.6). Other risk factors included unvaccinated status (aOR = 1.2, CI = 1.2-1.3), symptoms, and older age (66-79 years; aOR = 1.4, CI = 1.4-1.5). Whilst global COVID-19 strategies emphasized protection outside the home, including education, travel, and gathering restrictions, this study evidences the relative importance of household transmission. There is a need to reconsider the contribution of household transmission to future control strategies and the requirement for effective infection control within households.</p>","PeriodicalId":11721,"journal":{"name":"Epidemiology and Infection","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.5000,"publicationDate":"2024-10-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11450508/pdf/","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Risk factors for COVID-19 transmission in England: a multilevel modelling study using routine contact tracing data.\",\"authors\":\"Hannah L Moore, Charlie Turner, Chris Rawlinson, Cong Chen, Neville Q Verlander, Charlotte Anderson, Gareth J Hughes\",\"doi\":\"10.1017/S0950268824001043\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><p>Contact tracing for COVID-19 in England operated from May 2020 to February 2022. The clinical, demographic and exposure information collected on cases and their contacts offered a unique opportunity to study secondary transmission. We aimed to quantify the relative impact of host factors and exposure settings on secondary COVID-19 transmission risk using 550,000 sampled transmission links between cases and their contacts. Links, or 'contact episodes', were established where a contact subsequently became a case, using an algorithm accounting for incubation period, setting, and contact date. A mixed-effects logistic regression model was used to estimate adjusted odds of transmission. Of sampled episodes, 8.7% resulted in secondary cases. Living with a case (71% episodes) was the most significant risk factor (aOR = 2.6, CI = 1.9-3.6). Other risk factors included unvaccinated status (aOR = 1.2, CI = 1.2-1.3), symptoms, and older age (66-79 years; aOR = 1.4, CI = 1.4-1.5). Whilst global COVID-19 strategies emphasized protection outside the home, including education, travel, and gathering restrictions, this study evidences the relative importance of household transmission. There is a need to reconsider the contribution of household transmission to future control strategies and the requirement for effective infection control within households.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":11721,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Epidemiology and Infection\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":2.5000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-10-02\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11450508/pdf/\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Epidemiology and Infection\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"3\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1017/S0950268824001043\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"医学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q3\",\"JCRName\":\"INFECTIOUS DISEASES\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Epidemiology and Infection","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1017/S0950268824001043","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"INFECTIOUS DISEASES","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0

摘要

英格兰的 COVID-19 接触者追踪从 2020 年 5 月开始,至 2022 年 2 月结束。收集到的病例及其接触者的临床、人口统计学和接触信息为研究二次传播提供了一个独特的机会。我们的目标是利用病例及其接触者之间的 55 万个采样传播链接,量化宿主因素和接触环境对 COVID-19 二次传播风险的相对影响。根据潜伏期、环境和接触日期的算法,确定了接触者后来成为病例的链接或 "接触事件"。混合效应逻辑回归模型用于估算调整后的传播几率。在抽样调查的病例中,8.7% 的病例为继发病例。与病例共同生活(71%的病例)是最重要的风险因素(aOR = 2.6,CI = 1.9-3.6)。其他风险因素包括未接种疫苗(aOR = 1.2,CI = 1.2-1.3)、症状和年龄较大(66-79 岁;aOR = 1.4,CI = 1.4-1.5)。虽然 COVID-19 全球战略强调家庭外的保护,包括教育、旅行和聚会限制,但本研究证明了家庭传播的相对重要性。有必要重新考虑家庭传播对未来控制策略的贡献以及在家庭内进行有效感染控制的要求。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Risk factors for COVID-19 transmission in England: a multilevel modelling study using routine contact tracing data.

Contact tracing for COVID-19 in England operated from May 2020 to February 2022. The clinical, demographic and exposure information collected on cases and their contacts offered a unique opportunity to study secondary transmission. We aimed to quantify the relative impact of host factors and exposure settings on secondary COVID-19 transmission risk using 550,000 sampled transmission links between cases and their contacts. Links, or 'contact episodes', were established where a contact subsequently became a case, using an algorithm accounting for incubation period, setting, and contact date. A mixed-effects logistic regression model was used to estimate adjusted odds of transmission. Of sampled episodes, 8.7% resulted in secondary cases. Living with a case (71% episodes) was the most significant risk factor (aOR = 2.6, CI = 1.9-3.6). Other risk factors included unvaccinated status (aOR = 1.2, CI = 1.2-1.3), symptoms, and older age (66-79 years; aOR = 1.4, CI = 1.4-1.5). Whilst global COVID-19 strategies emphasized protection outside the home, including education, travel, and gathering restrictions, this study evidences the relative importance of household transmission. There is a need to reconsider the contribution of household transmission to future control strategies and the requirement for effective infection control within households.

求助全文
通过发布文献求助,成功后即可免费获取论文全文。 去求助
来源期刊
Epidemiology and Infection
Epidemiology and Infection 医学-传染病学
CiteScore
4.10
自引率
2.40%
发文量
366
审稿时长
3-6 weeks
期刊介绍: Epidemiology & Infection publishes original reports and reviews on all aspects of infection in humans and animals. Particular emphasis is given to the epidemiology, prevention and control of infectious diseases. The scope covers the zoonoses, outbreaks, food hygiene, vaccine studies, statistics and the clinical, social and public-health aspects of infectious disease, as well as some tropical infections. It has become the key international periodical in which to find the latest reports on recently discovered infections and new technology. For those concerned with policy and planning for the control of infections, the papers on mathematical modelling of epidemics caused by historical, current and emergent infections are of particular value.
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
确定
请完成安全验证×
copy
已复制链接
快去分享给好友吧!
我知道了
右上角分享
点击右上角分享
0
联系我们:info@booksci.cn Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。 Copyright © 2023 布克学术 All rights reserved.
京ICP备2023020795号-1
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术官方微信