The assembly and dynamics of ecological communities in an ever-changing world

Alternative perspectives on the maintenance of biodiversity and the assembly of ecological communities suggest that both processes cannot be investigated simultaneously. In this concept and synthesis, we challenge this view by presenting major theoretical advances in structural stability and permanence theory. These advances, which provide complementary views, allow studying the short- and long-term dynamics of ecological communities as changes in species richness, composition, and abundance. Here, the global attractor, technically named informational structure (IS), is the central element to construct from information of species' intrinsic growth rates and their strength and sign of interactions. The global attractor has four main properties: (1) It contains all the limits of what is feasible and unfeasible of the dynamical behavior of an ecological system, therefore, (2) it provides a thorough characterization of all combinations of species' richness and composition in which species can coexist (i.e., feasible and stable equilibrium), (3) as well as all connections (paths) of assembly between coexisting communities. Importantly, (4) such topology of coexisting communities and their connections changes when environmental (abiotic and biotic) variation affects the ability of species to grow and interact with others. Overall, these four properties allow switching from a traditional evaluation of species coexistence at equilibrium to a much more realistic nonequilibrium perspective where changes in the structure of the global attractor underlie the transient ecological dynamics. Several fields in ecology can benefit from the study of an IS. For instance, it can serve to evaluate community responses after the end of a perturbation, to design restoration trajectories, to study the consequences of biological invasions on the persistence of native species within communities, or to assess ecosystem health status. We illustrate this latter possibility with empirical observations of 7 years in Mediterranean annual grasslands. We document that extremely wet or dry years generate ISs supporting few coexisting communities and few assembly paths. The remaining communities distinguish winners from losers of ongoing climate change and indicate the limits to future community assembly opportunities. A fully tractable operational framework is readily available to understand and predict the assembly and dynamics of ecological communities in an ever-changing world.