{"title":"中国的资本管制:宏观经济稳定的必要性","authors":"Cheng Zhou","doi":"10.1016/j.jfs.2024.101335","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper investigates the crucial role of capital controls in maintaining macroeconomic stability in China. We develop an open macroeconomic model integrating capital controls within a managed floating exchange rate system. Our model shows that capital controls enhance the effectiveness of foreign exchange interventions by restricting capital outflows and providing a broader array of policy options, though they may also create discrepancies between domestic and foreign asset holdings. Simulations using quarterly time-series data reveal that capital controls are essential for the success of both sterilized and non-sterilized interventions. These results indicate that the combined use of capital controls and foreign exchange interventions can reduce macroeconomic volatility in China. Moreover, our analysis of fixed versus floating exchange rate regimes suggests that an inappropriate regime choice can increase volatility in capital flows. Therefore, China should adopt a balanced financial approach within its managed floating system to stabilize the macroeconomy.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48027,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Stability","volume":"75 ","pages":"Article 101335"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1000,"publicationDate":"2024-09-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Capital controls in China: A necessity for macroeconomic stability\",\"authors\":\"Cheng Zhou\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.jfs.2024.101335\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><div>This paper investigates the crucial role of capital controls in maintaining macroeconomic stability in China. We develop an open macroeconomic model integrating capital controls within a managed floating exchange rate system. Our model shows that capital controls enhance the effectiveness of foreign exchange interventions by restricting capital outflows and providing a broader array of policy options, though they may also create discrepancies between domestic and foreign asset holdings. Simulations using quarterly time-series data reveal that capital controls are essential for the success of both sterilized and non-sterilized interventions. These results indicate that the combined use of capital controls and foreign exchange interventions can reduce macroeconomic volatility in China. Moreover, our analysis of fixed versus floating exchange rate regimes suggests that an inappropriate regime choice can increase volatility in capital flows. Therefore, China should adopt a balanced financial approach within its managed floating system to stabilize the macroeconomy.</div></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":48027,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Journal of Financial Stability\",\"volume\":\"75 \",\"pages\":\"Article 101335\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":6.1000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-09-24\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Journal of Financial Stability\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"96\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1572308924001207\",\"RegionNum\":2,\"RegionCategory\":\"经济学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"BUSINESS, FINANCE\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Financial Stability","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1572308924001207","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"BUSINESS, FINANCE","Score":null,"Total":0}
Capital controls in China: A necessity for macroeconomic stability
This paper investigates the crucial role of capital controls in maintaining macroeconomic stability in China. We develop an open macroeconomic model integrating capital controls within a managed floating exchange rate system. Our model shows that capital controls enhance the effectiveness of foreign exchange interventions by restricting capital outflows and providing a broader array of policy options, though they may also create discrepancies between domestic and foreign asset holdings. Simulations using quarterly time-series data reveal that capital controls are essential for the success of both sterilized and non-sterilized interventions. These results indicate that the combined use of capital controls and foreign exchange interventions can reduce macroeconomic volatility in China. Moreover, our analysis of fixed versus floating exchange rate regimes suggests that an inappropriate regime choice can increase volatility in capital flows. Therefore, China should adopt a balanced financial approach within its managed floating system to stabilize the macroeconomy.
期刊介绍:
The Journal of Financial Stability provides an international forum for rigorous theoretical and empirical macro and micro economic and financial analysis of the causes, management, resolution and preventions of financial crises, including banking, securities market, payments and currency crises. The primary focus is on applied research that would be useful in affecting public policy with respect to financial stability. Thus, the Journal seeks to promote interaction among researchers, policy-makers and practitioners to identify potential risks to financial stability and develop means for preventing, mitigating or managing these risks both within and across countries.