[长江三角洲地区农业生产和消费系统的氮流量特征及其驱动因素]。

Q2 Environmental Science
Ze-Qian Zhang, Li Dong, Peng Liu, Ting-Ting Zhou, Li-Hui Sun
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引用次数: 0

摘要

为评估人类活动对区域氮流的影响,以长三角地区 27 个城市的统计数据为基础,采用物质流分析方法分析了 2011-2020 年长三角地区农业生产与消费系统(APC)的氮流特征,并采用情景分析方法分析了氮流的驱动因素。采用物质流分析方法分析了 2011-2020 年长江三角洲地区农业生产与消费系统(APC)的氮流特征,并采用情景分析方法分析了氮流的驱动因素。结果表明,2011-2020年,长三角地区APC平均氮输入强度为194.6 kg-(hm2-a)-1,是全国平均值的5倍多;因此,长三角地区是中国氮输入强度的热点地区。化肥是氮投入的最大组成部分,由于粮食消费需求的快速增长,长三角从粮食和动物产品的净出口地区变为净进口地区。该系统的氮输出主要是向环境流失的氮,平均占 53.2%。耕地的氮利用效率(NUE)分别为 38.7%-42.2%和 15.8%-21.5%,均处于较低水平。此外,APC 的氮输入和输出总量均呈抛物线下降趋势,分别下降了 11.3% 和 10.0%。从空间上看,氮投入强度总体呈现 "北高南低 "的格局,城市间氮投入强度的空间异质性显著。输入强度高的城市主要分布在江苏北部和东部、上海以及浙江东北部。平均氮输入强度的分布存在明显的正空间自相关。利用误差传播方程估算了氮流量的不确定性。氮输入和输出的不确定性区间为 4.5% 至 34.6%,与相关研究结果基本相当,表明模型结果是可靠的。根据情景分析方法,畜牧业规模的缩小导致氮投入量减少-0.27%-7.53%,是导致旱作农业总氮投入量减少的主要原因。提高耕地的氮利用效率和重建耕地与牲畜之间的联系将有助于减少环境中的氮损失。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
[Nitrogen Flow Characteristics of Agricultural Production and Consumption System in the Yangtze River Delta Region and Its Driving Factors].

To assess the impact of human activities on regional nitrogen (N) flow, based on the statistical data of 27 cities in the Yangtze River Delta Region (YRD), N flow characteristics of the agricultural production and consumption system (APC) in the YRD from 2011 to 2020 were analyzed using substance flow analysis, and driving factors for N flow were analyzed using scenario analysis. The results showed that from 2011 to 2020, the mean N input intensity of the APC in the YRD was 194.6 kg·(hm2·a)-1, which was more than five times the national average value; thus, the YRD was a hotspot of N input intensity in China. Chemical N fertilizer was the largest component of N input, and the YRD changed from a net export area of grain and animal products to a net import area due to the rapid growth of food consumption demand. The N output of the system was mainly N loss to the environment, accounting for 53.2% on average. The N use efficiency (NUE) of cropland and the N recycling ratio of the APC ranged from 38.7-42.2% and 15.8-21.5%, respectively, which were both at a low level. In addition, the total amount of N input and output of the APC both showed a parabolic decline trend, decreasing by 11.3% and 10.0%, respectively. Spatially, the overall N input intensity showed a pattern of "high in the north and low in the south," and the spatial heterogeneity of N input intensity among cities was significant. Cities with high input intensity were mainly located in the north and east of Jiangsu, Shanghai, and northeast of Zhejiang. A significant positive spatial autocorrelation of the distribution of mean N input intensity was observed. The uncertainty of N flows was estimated using the error propagation equation. The uncertainty interval of N input and output ranged from 4.5% to 34.6%, which was roughly equivalent to the results of related studies, indicating that the model results were reliable. Based on the scenario analysis method, the decrease of the livestock scale led to a decrease of -0.27%-7.53% in the N input, making it the main reason for the decrease of total N input in the APC. Improving the NUE of cropland and re-establishing the linkage between cropland and livestock will help reduce N loss to the environment.

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来源期刊
Huanjing Kexue/Environmental Science
Huanjing Kexue/Environmental Science Environmental Science-Environmental Science (all)
CiteScore
4.40
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