温度数据的趋势：其性质的微观基础

IF 2.1 4区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Economics Letters Pub Date : 2024-09-26 DOI:10.1016/j.econlet.2024.111992

Maria Dolores Gadea-Rivas , Jesús Gonzalo , Andrey Ramos

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引用次数: 0

摘要

确定全球平均气温（GAT）是一个阶数为 1 的综合过程（I(1)），还是一个围绕趋势函数的静止过程，对于气候变化的探测、归因、影响和预测研究至关重要。在本文中，我们在分析单个温度网格的基础上研究了 GAT 趋势的性质。我们的微观证据表明，GAT 是围绕一个线性函数形式的非线性确定性趋势静止的，但有一个结构断点。这一断裂可归因于单个网格的断裂和全球变暖加速情况下的标准汇总方法。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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Trends in temperature data: Micro-foundations of their nature

Determining whether Global Average Temperature (GAT) is an integrated process of order 1, I(1), or a stationary process around a trend function is crucial for detection, attribution, impact, and forecasting studies of climate change. In this paper, we investigate the nature of trends in GAT building on the analysis of individual temperature grids. Our micro-founded evidence suggests that GAT is stationary around a non-linear deterministic trend in the form of a linear function with one structural break. This break can be attributed to a combination of breaks on individual grids and the standard aggregation method under acceleration in global warming.

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来源期刊

Economics Letters ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

3.20

自引率

5.00%

发文量

348

审稿时长

30 days

期刊介绍： Many economists today are concerned by the proliferation of journals and the concomitant labyrinth of research to be conquered in order to reach the specific information they require. To combat this tendency, Economics Letters has been conceived and designed outside the realm of the traditional economics journal. As a Letters Journal, it consists of concise communications (letters) that provide a means of rapid and efficient dissemination of new results, models and methods in all fields of economic research.