Maria Dolores Gadea-Rivas , Jesús Gonzalo , Andrey Ramos
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引用次数: 0
摘要
确定全球平均气温（GAT）是一个阶数为 1 的综合过程（I(1)），还是一个围绕趋势函数的静止过程，对于气候变化的探测、归因、影响和预测研究至关重要。在本文中，我们在分析单个温度网格的基础上研究了 GAT 趋势的性质。我们的微观证据表明，GAT 是围绕一个线性函数形式的非线性确定性趋势静止的，但有一个结构断点。这一断裂可归因于单个网格的断裂和全球变暖加速情况下的标准汇总方法。
Trends in temperature data: Micro-foundations of their nature
Determining whether Global Average Temperature (GAT) is an integrated process of order 1, I(1), or a stationary process around a trend function is crucial for detection, attribution, impact, and forecasting studies of climate change. In this paper, we investigate the nature of trends in GAT building on the analysis of individual temperature grids. Our micro-founded evidence suggests that GAT is stationary around a non-linear deterministic trend in the form of a linear function with one structural break. This break can be attributed to a combination of breaks on individual grids and the standard aggregation method under acceleration in global warming.
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