带有水文参数控制变量的 MWHS-II 变量全天空同化框架及其对台风案例分析和预报的影响

IF 4.4 2区 地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
Luyao Qin, Yaodeng Chen, Deming Meng, Xiaoping Cheng, Peng Zhang
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引用次数: 0

摘要

全天空辐射同化技术已得到广泛开发,可为多云条件下的数值天气预报提供更多信息。微波辐射对水文流星特别敏感,如果有水文流星控制变量(HCVs),就可以直接利用微波辐射初始化水文流星。然而,HCVs 的统计结构及其多元相关性对全天辐射同化的影响仍不清楚。本研究在变分同化系统中引入了五个 HCV。分析了水文气象背景误差的特征,并讨论了其与观测算子的综合效应。然后修改了含有 HCVs 的三维变分全天空同化框架,以同化风云-3C/D 微波湿度探测仪-II 辐射。结果表明,水文参数直接由辐射量初始化,热力学场也会相应调整。多变量增量的特征与背景误差中 HCV 的特征和观测算子中 Jacobian 的特征相关。此外,还对三个台风案例进行了循环同化和预报试验。结果发现,当 HCV 被激活时,观测到的亮度温度与分析到的亮度温度之间的差异减小,水文流体分析场与观测结果更加一致。此外,双暖核和二次环流增强后,台风强度预报也得到了改善。本文分析了使用 HCVs 的变分全天空同化框架的特点,并展示了 HCVs 在变分全天空辐射同化方面的潜在价值。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

Variational All-Sky Assimilation Framework for MWHS-II With Hydrometeors Control Variables and Its Impacts on Analysis and Forecast of Typhoon Cases

Variational All-Sky Assimilation Framework for MWHS-II With Hydrometeors Control Variables and Its Impacts on Analysis and Forecast of Typhoon Cases

All-sky radiance assimilation has been extensively developed to provide additional information for numerical weather prediction under cloudy conditions. Microwave radiances are particularly sensitive to hydrometeors, which can be used to initialize hydrometeor directly if the hydrometeor control variables (HCVs) are available. However, the effects of HCVs statistical structure and their multivariate correlation on all-sky radiance assimilation remain unclear. In this study, five HCVs are introduced into the variational assimilation system. The characteristics of hydrometeor background errors are analyzed, and the combined effect with the observation operator is discussed. Then a 3D Variational all-sky assimilation framework with HCVs is modified to assimilate Fengyun-3C/D Microwave Humidity Sounder-II radiance. It is shown that hydrometeors are initialized by radiance directly, and the thermodynamic fields are adjusted accordingly. The characteristics of multi-variables increments are associated with both the characteristics of HCVs in background error and the Jacobians in observation operator. Furthermore, cycle assimilation and forecast experiments for three typhoon cases are conducted. It is found that the difference between observed and analyzed brightness temperatures decreases when HCVs are activated, and the hydrometeors analysis fields are more consistent with observations. Additionally, the typhoon intensity forecasts are improved with enhanced double warm-core and the secondary circulation. This paper analyzes the characteristics of variational all-sky assimilation framework with HCVs, and demonstrates the potential value of HCVs for variational all-sky radiance assimilation.

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来源期刊
Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems
Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES-
CiteScore
11.40
自引率
11.80%
发文量
241
审稿时长
>12 weeks
期刊介绍: The Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems (JAMES) is committed to advancing the science of Earth systems modeling by offering high-quality scientific research through online availability and open access licensing. JAMES invites authors and readers from the international Earth systems modeling community. Open access. Articles are available free of charge for everyone with Internet access to view and download. Formal peer review. Supplemental material, such as code samples, images, and visualizations, is published at no additional charge. No additional charge for color figures. Modest page charges to cover production costs. Articles published in high-quality full text PDF, HTML, and XML. Internal and external reference linking, DOI registration, and forward linking via CrossRef.
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