1990 至 2050 年全球儿童和青少年近视患病率、趋势和预测：全面系统回顾和荟萃分析

IF 3.7 2区医学 Q1 OPHTHALMOLOGY

British Journal of Ophthalmology Pub Date : 2024-09-24 DOI:10.1136/bjo-2024-325427

Jinghong Liang, Yingqi Pu, Jiaqi Chen, Meiling Liu, Bowen Ouyang, Zhengge Jin, Wenxin Ge, Zhuowen Wu, Xiuzhi Yang, Chunsong Qin, Cong Wang, Shan Huang, Nan Jiang, Lixin Hu, Yushan Zhang, Zhaohuan Gui, Xueya Pu, Shaoyi Huang, Yajun Chen

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引用次数: 0

摘要

背景近视是一个普遍的全球公共健康问题，尤其是在年轻人群中。然而，近视发病率的不断攀升仍不确定。因此，我们的研究旨在确定近视的全球和地区流行率，以及在特定人口群体中的发生率。方法在多个数据库中进行了详尽的文献检索，时间跨度从数据库建立之初到 2023 年 6 月 27 日。通过使用带有 95% CI 的集合估计值确定了近视的全球流行率，并进行了进一步分析，以评估不同亚群中流行率估计值的差异。此外，还利用时间序列模型预测并准确拟合了未来三十年的近视患病率。结果本研究对 276 项研究进行了全面分析，涉及来自六大洲 50 个国家的 5 410 945 名参与者。研究结果表明，从 1990 年到 2023 年，近视的总体流行率逐渐上升，从 24.32% (95% CI 15.23% 到 33.40%) 到 35.81% (95% CI 31.70% 到 39.91%)，预测显示，这一流行率预计将在 2040 年达到 36.59%，在 2050 年达到 39.80%。值得注意的是，居住在东亚（35.22%）或城市地区（28.55%）、女性（33.57%）、青少年（47.00%）和高中生（45.71%）的近视患病率比例较高。结论儿童近视的全球发病率很高，约有三分之一的儿童和青少年受到影响，不同人口群体的发病率存在明显差异。预计到 2050 年，全球近视发病率将超过 7.4 亿例。所有与研究相关的数据均包含在文章中或作为补充信息上传。我们的研究中包含的所有数据均来自已发表的研究。

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Global prevalence, trend and projection of myopia in children and adolescents from 1990 to 2050: a comprehensive systematic review and meta-analysis

Background Myopia is a pervasive global public health concern, particularly among the younger population. However, the escalating prevalence of myopia remains uncertain. Hence, our research aims to ascertain the global and regional prevalence of myopia, along with its occurrence within specific demographic groups. Methods An exhaustive literature search was performed on several databases covering the period from their inception to 27 June 2023. The global prevalence of myopia was determined by employing pooled estimates with a 95% CI, and further analysis was conducted to assess variations in prevalence estimates across different subgroups. Additionally, a time series model was utilised to forecast and fit accurately the future prevalence of myopia for the next three decades. Results This study encompasses a comprehensive analysis of 276 studies, involving a total of 5 410 945 participants from 50 countries across all six continents. The findings revealed a gradual increase in pooled prevalence of myopia, ranging from 24.32% (95% CI 15.23% to 33.40%) to 35.81% (95% CI 31.70% to 39.91%), observed from 1990 to 2023, and projections indicate that this prevalence is expected to reach 36.59% in 2040 and 39.80% in 2050. Notably, individuals residing in East Asia (35.22%) or in urban areas (28.55%), female gender (33.57%), adolescents (47.00%), and high school students (45.71%) exhibit a higher proportion of myopia prevalence. Conclusion The global prevalence of childhood myopia is substantial, affecting approximately one-third of children and adolescents, with notable variations in prevalence across different demographic groups. It is anticipated that the global incidence of myopia will exceed 740 million cases by 2050. All data relevant to the study are included in the article or uploaded as supplementary information. All the data included in our study are from published studies.

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来源期刊

British Journal of Ophthalmology 医学-眼科学

CiteScore

10.30

自引率

2.40%

发文量

213

审稿时长

3-6 weeks

期刊介绍： The British Journal of Ophthalmology (BJO) is an international peer-reviewed journal for ophthalmologists and visual science specialists. BJO publishes clinical investigations, clinical observations, and clinically relevant laboratory investigations related to ophthalmology. It also provides major reviews and also publishes manuscripts covering regional issues in a global context.